Reality is a ...

[shield_2006]

The Governor of the Central Bank-a lone voice crying in the midst of many burying their heads in the sand has once more draw the attention of the nation to REALITY. Not that in the middle of all this gloating about Performing Arts Centre and so on will it make a big difference-I hope not.

We continue to pretend that all is well when in fact it is not and the monstrosities we have created with valuable capital will stand as a stark reminder of the folly of the last few years-MARK MY WORDS.

The public debt is a cause for concern as the ratio to GDP increases as GDP falls and the foreign exchange situation cleanly is not healthy. As Tax Revenue declines and the spending continues unabated to make these useless pyramids and the largess shrinks-what kind of society will we become-it should be interesting.


http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_news?id=161556878

[Huma]

shield, you getting this situation back to front.

A few months ago everyone was already very aware of the reality of recession...because everyone was bawling recession while he was saying, "No recession...well not really a recession. Kinda, by certain definitions..."*

And that's neither a criticism of the man or an indictment of the public. Just doh act as if everyone's been ignoring the possibility/reality of recession while he was some lone voice in the wilderness.

*Which he's still saying...

[Redman]

He must have moved-cleaned the window or at least taken of the rose colored tint.

Steups,

Later

[shield_2006]

So much for the personality--What about the economics??

[mammadon]

i don't think williams is to blame, as such.

to be fair, his economics is spot on. The conventional definition of a recession is generally taken with a pinch of salt, since it's not a perfect definition. For one it's difficult to pin point when a recession actually starts, since the two quarters of negative growth model is not that exact. Also, he never once did say that the economy was rosy when it was not, and openly did say that the economy had, and is, contracting.

The real villians here are Manning and they. It was them, when this global recession started, who said that Trini would not be affected by it. Williams only is head of an independent central bank, he does not have ultimate control over governmental macroeconomic policy. he ent even have control over monetary policy, due to the peg with the US dollar.

I'm not an economist, but to me the reason for this recession is more than being affected by a global downturn. PNM coasted on the oil price boom, and did little to prepare for any possibility of a fall.

[Redman]

So much for the personality--What about the economics??

IMHO Well he counting egg in fowl bottom. <<--Economic term in yuh tail !!!!
Im suspect of this recovery in the US - there is conflicting data-weak USD,excess liquidity and deficits as far as the eye can see, The fed printing money to keep things going, personal consumption is low,the gdp figures are weak when you extract the 1 time benefits of stimulus. So the US is unclear and unstable.


Tdad
This is harder- we cant grow out of this recession if out largest trading partners are in a mess-the US and Caricom,
The USD will continue to weaken-we are effectively devaluing against the rest of the world.

The Govt has sown a whirlwind-the make work programs will continue to be harder for them to support in light of lower tax receipts and econ activity.

Getting into an era of PNM deficit spending is terrifying in my view.

All in all I think weve been put on a medium boil-just enough for the lobster to remain in the warm water.

Later

[Huma]

The real villians here are Manning and they. It was them, when this global recession started, who said that Trini would not be affected by it.

I willing to bet money that's not what they said, or that's an oversimplification of what was said.

[shield_2006]

The Govt has sown a whirlwind-the make work programs will continue to be harder for them to support in light of lower tax receipts and econ activity.

This is my concern-we already have seen the effect of trying to bring expenditure down in the light of falling revenues---anybody remember Robinson and the COLA and the overall cutback in recurrent expenditure and the realignment of the PSIP(Public Sector Investment Programme) and the outfall ending in the debacle of 1990. In view of the current social environment and the hardheaded approach to conspicuous consumption that has occurred-are we now in a position to weather the potential disastrous storm socially as well as economically?

[greall]

So much for the personality--What about the economics??

IMHO Well he counting egg in fowl bottom. <<--Economic term in yuh tail !!!!
Im suspect of this recovery in the US - there is conflicting data-weak USD,excess liquidity and deficits as far as the eye can see, The fed printing money to keep things going, personal consumption is low,the gdp figures are weak when you extract the 1 time benefits of stimulus. So the US is unclear and unstable.


Tdad
This is harder- we cant grow out of this recession if out largest trading partners are in a mess-the US and Caricom,
The USD will continue to weaken-we are effectively devaluing against the rest of the world.

The Govt has sown a whirlwind-the make work programs will continue to be harder for them to support in light of lower tax receipts and econ activity.

Getting into an era of PNM deficit spending is terrifying in my view.

All in all I think weve been put on a medium boil-just enough for the lobster to remain in the warm water.

Later

Interesting analysis,man

I take into consideration that there is extreme skepticism as per the US economic recovery and now there is word that the Eurozone is also out of recession which would be great if the Germans and the French were not battling increasing unemployment especially in the inner cities and other 'economically depressed areas'.

Most of the experts advised that there would be recovery within the next two years at most and now there is one...'just add water'... :?:

More to come later.

Greg

[Redman]

Greall,
the Euro is in the same position as the US except they are bogged down in bureaucracy, have different needs as well cultural ways of managing their individual economies. The FIAT currencies are backed by the same thing as the US-FULL FAITH and CREDIT(sic!) of the Govt. which is a good way of saying NOTHING backs this here Dollar,Euro.



The US will have to decide between a strong $ and their domestic econ-pick one. The weaker $ kicks the buyers of treasuries in the teeth.

So Ive been in investing in oil(back to 100 soon),Gold,Silver and the associated companies-also betting on higher rates in the US and on Agricultural Commodities.

Later

[mammadon]

So much for the personality--What about the economics??

IMHO Well he counting egg in fowl bottom. <<--Economic term in yuh tail !!!!
Im suspect of this recovery in the US - there is conflicting data-weak USD,excess liquidity and deficits as far as the eye can see, The fed printing money to keep things going, personal consumption is low,the gdp figures are weak when you extract the 1 time benefits of stimulus. So the US is unclear and unstable.


Tdad
This is harder- we cant grow out of this recession if out largest trading partners are in a mess-the US and Caricom,
The USD will continue to weaken-we are effectively devaluing against the rest of the world.

The Govt has sown a whirlwind-the make work programs will continue to be harder for them to support in light of lower tax receipts and econ activity.

Getting into an era of PNM deficit spending is terrifying in my view.

All in all I think weve been put on a medium boil-just enough for the lobster to remain in the warm water.

Later

i agree. I think in the near term, Trinidad would only grow at a healthy rate should the oil price rise significantly, which at this time remains a slim possibility.

seems economic mismanagement is another black mark against Manning and they. :D

[greall]

Greall,
the Euro is in the same position as the US except they are bogged down in bureaucracy, have different needs as well cultural ways of managing their individual economies. The FIAT currencies are backed by the same thing as the US-FULL FAITH and CREDIT(sic!) of the Govt. which is a good way of saying NOTHING backs this here Dollar,Euro.



The US will have to decide between a strong $ and their domestic econ-pick one. The weaker $ kicks the buyers of treasuries in the teeth.

So Ive been in investing in oil(back to 100 soon),Gold,Silver and the associated companies-also betting on higher rates in the US and on Agricultural Commodities.

Later

Hmmm...that's a difficult choice to have to make,Reds

The Chinese can only play nice for so long...

Greg

[shield_2006]

We have not yet been able to address the fundamental difficulty in this economy and that is moving the dependence away from energy. Our comparative advatage in the last few years has been gas and its utilization as a feedstock for producing products and we have done so via FDI and not as internally generated growth-difficult as I acknowledge that is-nevertheless when we frame a society on imported labour and congratulate ourselves for the outcrop of that policy we move so much farther away from being able to develop ourselves it is socially frightening. The Chinese and the Malaysians and the Taiwanese dealt with the difficulties of the learning curve and came out the better for it and now can export all kinds of services and products-we prefer to say that local is no good and congratulate a man like Hart for bringing foreign labour with no technology transfer and then HOPE that somehow we will end up a developed country whether is 2010 or 2110. This will be recorded as the most destructive period in our history and what is worse or alarming is that it has no relationship to the period we went through in the late 70's and early 80's-we learnt NOTHING.

[Redman]

Our reserves are the major question

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... rgy-agency (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency)

The move into the 'tar sands' in the SW belt is JUST a way to increase our reserves-We will not be exploiting what ever resources are found for a while.

The reserves game is rigged by OPEC-a countries quota is based on the reserves- the higher the reserves the higher the quota-So Saudi has BIG incentive to high ball their reserves-

Peak oil isnt about running out of oil- its about running out of Cheap oil-it IMHO the same for most other hard commodities.

I believe we might have missed THE last boat.


Later

[ruskie]

Redman,

How do you invest in oil? Individual oil companies? drillers? suppliers? Mutual funds?

[greall]

Redman,

How do you invest in oil? Individual oil companies? drillers? suppliers? Mutual funds?

Ruskie:

Yes to all.

shield_2006:

The chickens will come home to roost soon and we will fall hard.

The government is currently looking for ways to 'creatively increase income' to try to shore up the big hole of the the national deficit.To be clear here,I have no problem with government spending but it's what we're spending the money on:are these projects feasible...can we maintain the large complexes... :?:

I am a child of the 1980s when my parents brought home smaller pay packets and worried about whether or not they could've afforded to send any of us to university or maintain 4 young children who were 'eating them out of house and home'... :lol:
We survived that period by tweaking the family budget but unfortunately I think that those born in the days of excess and cheap money may not be able to do as such.

The days of 'free money' are over even though one can be fooled by the present low interest rates which are to stimulate consumer spending bearing in mind that the consumer may be asked to choose between rent/mortgage payments and food.
There has been a contraction in the facilitation of credit to small businesses as they're seen as being more of a credit risk problem in times like now.We know that these entities hire more often and absorb those in the labor force with the bare minimum skill level.
Despite the hype with tertiary education,a large percentage of the national labor force falls into this category.

I hope that you can see where I'm getting at here if these people can't find work:increased dependence on the State's social services with the cost of these to be covered by taxes.

Introduce the orders within some ministries to cut their budgets or increase fees as per my family and friends in TTPS who now give more traffic tickets than catch criminals... :lol:

Welcome to 'The Piper Republic of Trinidad and Tobago...Air costs US$1.03 per cubic centimetre...Please Breathe Carefully!'

Greg

[Redman]

Redman,

How do you invest in oil? Individual oil companies? drillers? suppliers? Mutual funds?

Greall is right-depending on what is suitable-

JUST FYI I manage money for individual and institutional clients-so when I say I own- Im talking about the portfolios I manage-Personally I own most of what I recommend- but of course in different quantities.

I stay away from the integrated oil cos-the price of oil is politically driven. And theyve been losing reserves.

Drillers,and service companies-HAL,SLB,RIG, BHI,HLX are a good group,
also ETFs are a easy way to go-the PGJ and DJP give you exposure to the oil sector and a basket of hard commodities-one of which is oil.

Nat Gas suppliers were a good place to be CHK has done well -

I own some dogs-AXAS and BQI are oil and gas respectively-BQI a oil sands play that would work eventually I hope.


Hope this helps

And just to get this off my chest -did Marianno Browne say anything of substance on CNC 3 last night-The man is a spin doctor-no content. Blasted charlatan

LAter

[ruskie]

Thanks. I've been writing down and following stocks for some time without putting my money where my mouth is....but since March it has been too easy to be right!! Almost heart breaking, since I never followed through. I kept expecting a second drop , none so far, but......

[Redman]

Weelll welcome to the world-you will never have all the info.

Timing the market is one thing-but managing your money flow and risk is the key- just look for good companies that make sense to you and you would be fine-

Good Luck


Later