2012...what if...?

[kemist]

i know its way way way way way way too early to predict stuff now, but if
1)this is mannings last term before he willfully retires from politics and a new leadership for the pnm arises (just please dont let it be rowley)
2) this is bas's last term in politics b4 he 's either forced out or willfully retires from politics
3) if COP survives for the next 5 years or a party like cop emerges over the next 5 years

the 2012 election climate would be very different from any previous ones.

I say this because, if the pnm somehow manages to curb crime and lower food prices and present some competence in managing the ecomomy, and give the indians water (lol) (i know i'm dreaming about these, but lets just say, for arguement sake), with manning gone, i would seriously consider voting for them and i believe some of those marginals may swing their way.

However if the pnm does not perform the next 5 years, it would give a party like the COP a fighting chance next election especially in those marginal areas, to at least get into opposition and push the unc out.

If panday and rml are gone, or if panday is gone and rml sticks around and behaves himself, it is possible for opposing forces to unite which may take the next elections.

lots to think about, only time can tell :)

[Somebody007]

Bas willfully retires???? Bas will be in prison before then.

[Sirius]

I think 2012 will either see 3 parties with multiple seats in parliament with PNM still holding government, or a united COP/UNC front that will sweep into government. It depends a lot on whether the COP sticks around or fades out for another to fill the gap, on whether the PNM does a good job addressing the nation's ills, and whether the UNC is able to reinvent itself and not disintegrate with power struggles and an impression it can win without wooing what has now become the 100,000+ strong COP base.

[JediKnight]

I think that yesterday confirmed 1981, in that there is no room for a third party. The country is in such a state, and that did not bring out the undecided voters. Nothing will spur them on to vote. Unless there can be some form of unity between the COP and the UNC, IN THE FUTURE, the PNM is here to stay. Unity cannot take place now. We will have to wait and see what becomes of the COP. Dookeran should definitely step down as the Political Leader. I would personally like to see Wendy Lee Yeun emerge. It remains to be seen whether Panday will do the honourable thing and step down, because yet again, he has failed to lead his party into government. It is time that the entire leadership of both parties change. Both the COP and the UNC have capable people, and it is the older ones, with a lust for power, who are ruining it. Of course that is easier said than done.

[deathwinger]

Elections will call before 2012, especially if PNM continues at the rate it's going.

[cm103]

Nah, Patos lose every time he try a snap poll. He go milk this one.

[TheLight]

If I was PNM I would continue to finance the Corpse and keep them alive till next election

[BW]

I think 2012 will either see 3 parties with multiple seats in parliament with PNM still holding government, or a united COP/UNC front that will sweep into government. It depends a lot on whether the COP sticks around or fades out for another to fill the gap, on whether the PNM does a good job addressing the nation's ills, and whether the UNC is able to reinvent itself and not disintegrate with power struggles and an impression it can win without wooing what has now become the 100,000+ strong COP base.

I agree with alot of the variables you presented. At this point in time, we can't really predict what's going to happen to the UNC or PNM over the next 5 years. It's entirely possible for both of those parties to not only secure their own base, but extend support numbers further. Nobody should just assume both the traditional parties are going to roll over and make room for a third competitor come 2012.

The COP right now has to convince the population (and it's own supporters) that it is still relevant. Traditionally, the major challenge faced by any third-party has been getting recognized as a viable alternative. Undoubtedly, the COP's credibility has been eroded now after that they have failed to secure even one seat. This leads to the other practical consideration: with no voice and parliament and no constituency to represent, how can they stay in the public eye? How will they get people to stay interested in them over the course of the next 5 years (nearly an eternity in the world of politics)?

The other issue is how will the COP reconcile with current and future UNC supporters. It's no secret that most of the support called up by the COP came from the traditional UNC base. Panday has made clear attempts to insulate his supporters from any such influence by the COP. Indeed, in the wake of this election, UNC supporters have been polarized to such an extent that it becomes very hard for them to even consider going over to the COP (even just by judging on the posts here, that should be obvious). From my own analysis, Panday's speech last night was as much directed at securing and re-assuring his own base, as it was attacking the COP.

So, where else will the COP turn? The results last night, while not encouraging, have at least shown the COP is a much more viable opposition in traditional PNM safe-seats. It seems that that will be their major growth area over the next few years. That, however, would require having to change and re-invent themselves; it means dropping Sat/Devant and the rest, but what other choice do they have?

Any way they take it, the COP must grow their support over the next few years to have a hope of winning a seat in 2012. The current COP support base isn't as stable as the traditional parties (for various reasons), so there must also be a clear effort to keep the 'converted' interested in the cause in the meantime. It's not going to be easy for them, and being honest things don't look good. Time will tell...

[edyle]

Our big problem is the geographic vote limitation.
It causes a regional cultism.
You get to parliament by having a regional popularity, and you carry along followers with you.

You don't get to parliament because you are intelligent, sensible and a well respected and trusted member of society; only a small number of people who happen to be in your vacinity are even ALLOWED to vote for you.

[Somebody007]

If I was PNM I would continue to finance the Corpse and keep them alive till next election


If I was the UNC I would try to persuade the Corpse to join us..... ;)

[kemist]

If I was PNM I would continue to finance the Corpse and keep them alive till next election

:lol:

prepare for "return of the living dead", 2012
:lol:
i guess we go have to settle for crix because there isnt much brains out there to feed on.
:lol: