The Re-Ascendancy of Ramesh

[Parsifal]

Expect a slow but gradual turn to Ramesh in the UNC.

I wrote in September that the unity forums that he had organized was his testing of the waters to gauge the UNC base support.

The campaign and results have allowed his political stocks to rise.

Take note of the following:

Winston Dookeran has been beaten and will not figure prominently in our local politics anymore as he is NOT IN PARLIAMENT. He will no longer be Ramesh's rival.

Ramesh has been publicly exonerated and forgiven by Basdeo Panday for what happened in 2001.

Ramesh won a very hard battle in a seat that Anand Ramlogan would have won had it been against any other candidate with the exception of Panday or Kamla.

The passing over of Kamla for the leadership position and her public acceptance of the snub (for the 2nd time). Her standing as a potential leader has diminished considerably as she is viewed as weak whereas Ramesh is viewed as strong.

.....and now most important of all......Ramesh was the one who spoke in very clear and definite terms of how the UNC must rebuild and reorganize themselves last night in Rienzi Complex. He has started the process of positioning himself as the one to "save" the party.

The knives will now start to be drawn once again on Basdeo Panday. He knows it is coming.....

[Sirius]

Very interesting analysis there Parsifal. But I disagree on Ramesh's ultimate fate.

I think that come 2012, COP will be alive and well, as was the ONR post-1981. Panday's angry speech last night has only served to prove to the 23% that supported COP why he was a worse candidate for PM than Manning. Panday will never regain that 23% of the electorate. COP's 23% will wan over the coming years but will exceed 23% by the time the 2012 elections roll around. COP will not be able to win alone and they will know it. UNC will not be able to win alone and they will know it.

The COP electorate will continue to view Kamla as the best choice for leader - not Ramesh. Ramesh will be a force to be reckoned with yes. Dookeran will fade out of leadership of the potential united UNC/COP front but will likely remain as COP leader. The COP's position come 2012 will be they will unite with a Kamla led UNC, and this is where Ramesh will lose his shot at PM.

This is all of course my view, but that is how I see it unfolding. Ramesh will play a big role in the coming years and be in a lot of spotlights. But it is Kamla who will ultimately lead the united UNC/COP front in 2012 to victory.

[Parsifal]

Agreed with you for the most part on the viability of the COP as it is essentially the ONR of 1981 at this stage with additional support of the Maha Sabha.

Panday never owned this constituency ....... he only borrowed it for a while. Some people on this forum don't understand that.

Ramesh is a very peculiar political animal. If you look back to my posts on the older board I was putting forward the strategy he had devised and the tactics he would employ to achieve this starting from his hosting of the unity forums in Saith Park and in Aranguez. Everything I said would happen already has.

Panday hurt Kamla in more ways than one. She will not attract the support of the moneyed Hindus as well as Ramesh. Also, he is the only one that has very good relations with the Maha Sabha and Suren Capildeo. This is the wound that only he can heal.

When Panday goes back on trial next April Ramesh will position himself as the legal champion of Basdeo Panday for the 2nd time.....not Kamla.

Ramesh understands the politics and how vicious you have to be to secure the support of his fellow MP's to support him as opposition leader when Panday leaves.....not Kamla.

Ramesh will be the face and voice of the UNC over the next days and weeks. He smells the blood in the water and knows what he has to do.....not Kamla

[skl]

I suspect we will have 3 oppostion parties come 2012.

RLM/Warner vs Kamla/Mikela vs COP.

[kemist]

I think that these characters are way too volatile to predict.

[Parsifal]

I agree that we will have 3 if not 4 political parties seeking to contest the 2012 elections.

The division between the UNC and the COP is now clearly defined.

The only real question will be the staying power of the COP. Their biggest hurdle is if they can survive by not being in parliament. This has been the death knell for any grouping that has preceded it.

[skl]

The only real question will be the staying power of the COP. Their biggest hurdle is if they can survive by not being in parliament. This has been the death knell for any grouping that has preceded it.

true

otoh unlike the early 90's when the UNC was actively wooing the NAR, the UNCA doesnt seem inclined to do anything besides attack the COP. so I doubt too many COP voters going to drift towards the UNC anytime soon.

[cm103]

True, the staying power of the COP is something in question that only time will be able to answer.

I do think though that should the COP itself die, those politically ambitious enough within the party would not have ignored the wave of support they earned this time and the lessons learned as to why they didn't.

This would possibly mean a birth of a new party with much less ONR/NAR ties but also on a platform of integrity and taking the politics to the people.

If the COP remains but is restructured to really feature the youth supporters and also worked the ground as a party without an immediate agenda then then they would have the double advantage of having a head start from those in parliament now and the look of a stable party.

If any of this don't make sense then please don't shoot me. I real bun today, they keep throwing new projects for me to manage. :(

[vaio]

COP ppl have an option besides the UNC and PNM, really hope that they are here for the long haul....and by their performance for a 1 year old party...they really should stay and work with the community as sirius said in another thread...

[slayerdave]

Election done so when the corpses going to democratically elect members of their executives. Or the high and mighty duck still play doc........

[Parsifal]

COP ppl have an option besides the UNC and PNM, really hope that they are here for the long haul....and by their performance for a 1 year old party...they really should stay and work with the community as sirius said in another thread...

The COP is a one year old party in name only.

They are however a 56 year old political ideology.

The COP is essentially the grandchild of the POPPG, a little more 'Brahmanised" (thanks to Sat, Devant and Suren) but still the POPPG/ONR.

They will have to aggressively take part in the Local Government elections due in 3-4 months. They will win in a number of areas and thus achieve some level of representation. This may allow them to survive electorally until 2012.

[Parsifal]

Don't say I did not warn you.....Panday is Leader of the Opposition and Ramesh is to be the Chief Whip.

So to anyone doubting RLM's drive to become Opposition Leader and PM you better watch out......the moves are playing out right in front of us now.

[skl]

you right parsifal

If the COp want to prove they in this for the long hual they have to contest the LG elections.and I beleive we could see them winning more than few seats.


of course Ramesh is the only one with any political sense left in the UNC. you see how conciliatory his victory speech was in Tabaquite ?

Several articles I read in the late 90's indicated that RLM was the one who formulated the UNC's plan of action after 1991 . and this current situation is exactly like 1991. He knows if the UNC is to survive they need to woo the COP back. and spitting venom isnt going to accomplish that.

[vaio]

Don't say I did not warn you.....Panday is Leader of the Opposition and Ramesh is to be the Chief Whip.

So to anyone doubting RLM's drive to become Opposition Leader and PM you better watch out......the moves are playing out right in front of us now.

actually parsi, Kamla is tipped to be chief whip..

[damianr]

Don't say I did not warn you.....Panday is Leader of the Opposition and Ramesh is to be the Chief Whip.

So to anyone doubting RLM's drive to become Opposition Leader and PM you better watch out......the moves are playing out right in front of us now.

Parsifal,

I agree with your analysis 100%, I pretty much had the same view with some additions, I think Ramesh didn't try to win this election on purpose, because the only (although still long shot) chance the UNC had, was to make an annoncement in the past week or two that Kamla would lead the party (she was the only person who could have possibly gained the swing votes in the marginals)- this however would have meant that Ramesh would never become Prime Minister.

The traditional Ramesh type strategies were missing from the UNC Campaingne except in the Tabaquite seat

Hence I think Ramesh's focus was on getting back into parliment through the Opposition (not Govt)- and you'll see him figure promenently into public life in the next five years

Also I think the future of COP will be dependent on who the new leader will be (if any) - I'll bet anything Dooks flying the coop