POLITICAL PUNDITS on TTOL

[peanut]

AH KEEP TELLING ALL YUH ... IT EH GO BE DAT EASY for THE PNM TO WIN!

POLITICAL analysis done by the People's National Movement shows that it faces a challenge to retain four of its seats, and that the election race will be tighter than many have forecasted.

That's because those constituencies have lost thousands of potential votes due to border changes by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC).

In the newly-created Mayaro constituency, the United National Congress' (UNC) candidate, Winston "Gypsy" Peters, has a shot at recapturing the seat held by former PNM party chairman Franklin Khan, who is charged with corruption and out of the running.

The PNM hierarchy believes it can run away with 22 seats in the November 5 polls, but a united opposition can capture 19 seats, according to the study that the Express was told of yesterday.

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl ... =161210414 (http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl/article_news?id=161210414)

The boundary changes have placed the PNM held constituencies of San Fernando West, Tunapuna and Point Fortin in political jeopardy, said a PNM source.

..........

A portion of the constituency has been carved out and added to the newly-created Princes Town South/Tableland. The electoral area removed from the Ortoire/Mayaro seat is in Moruga-a stronghold for Khan in 2002 and the reason, the Express was told, for his victory over Peters.

When Khan lost the fight in the December 2000 General Election, he polled 9,303 to Peters 10,932.

In a re-match in 2002, Khan won by a margin of 10,732 to Peters' 10,513 votes.

The boundary change has removed about 3000 potential votes from the Mayaro constituency.

[TheLight]

The UNC-A have a good chance to win....DON'T WASTE YOUR VOTE ON ANY OTHER PARTY!

[peanut]

Light, there is no doubt in my mind the UNC will retain some seats, how many is too close to call as the COP has made great inroads.

Right now I am in total agreement with Dr. Fuad Khan and I hope the COP Executive is listening. An accommodation with the UNC-A is an absolute necessity for the opposition parties to prevail in this election. And it is even greater a necessity for us the supporters of both the UNC-A and the COP to stop attacking each other and to drive this message home to our Leaders.

[TheLight]

Light, there is no doubt in my mind the UNC will retain some seats, how many is too close to call as the COP has made great inroads.

Right now I am in total agreement with Dr. Fuad Khan and I hope the COP Executive is listening. An accommodation with the UNC-A is an absolute necessity for the opposition parties to prevail in this election. And it is even greater a necessity for us the supporters of both the UNC-A and the COP to stop attacking each other and to drive this message home to our Leaders.
I agree with you but Yetming said ABSOLOUTLY NOT to unity, Dookeran say no way and by Saturday the cop will unvail their candidates…..so the voters will have to decide what result they want when they wake up on November 6th

[Scorpio]

I can probabbly go along with an "accomodation" where COP agrees to not put up a candidate for some seasts and the UNCA likewise, but what happenes after let's say if they win a combination of 22 seats ?The leadership issue will still be there, the egos will still exist, the people who feel they have a right to lead will still be in there, the people who like to mash things up if they don't get their way will be in the mix.

How will it it work ?

Please answer me, somebody....anybody...

[peanut]

I can probabbly go along with an "accomodation" where COP agrees to not put up a candidate for some seasts and the UNCA likewise, but what happenes after let's say if they win a combination of 22 seats ?The leadership issue will still be there, the egos will still exist, the people who feel they have a right to lead will still be in there, the people who like to mash things up if they don't get their way will be in the mix.

How will it it work ?

Please answer me, somebody....anybody...

In this scenario, the Leader of the Party that has the most votes [combined] leads.

[lou_uk]

Dookeran seemed to buckle a bit on Friday when he said any support from the UNC would be welcomed. When I saw that the first thought was that before he got into his car his mobile phone would be ringing (probably Yetming) saying "How yuh could say ah ting like that fella? Nah nah nah.. dat cyah work." But doh worry, when yuh speak later yuh go fix dat."

As long as you have strong members like Yetming and Roy "the boy" there will hardly be an accomodation that will last. Forget people like Nicole Dyer and other small fries. They can be blown aside like a roach in your tea.

Listened to Assam's program sometime last week. One caller asked him which would he prefer a. a very strong leader and weak members. b. a weak leader with strong members. He said he prefers option b. (hint COP) but in my opinion, when the members rebel (as in the case of the UNC) the strong leader's walls will tumble with him inside (that cheese). I've heard Kamla saying "united we stand, divided we fall" but wonder if she really understands what it means.

My advice to the UNCA would be to concentrate on their own campaign. It is getting late and the only thing they can do now to look kinda credible (there is a strong stigma attached) is to put Kamla as leader on Sunday. But, Along came Ramesh, (endorsed by Panday?) who is not going to be comfortable deputizing under her.

[lou_uk]

The UNC-A have a good chance to win....DON'T WASTE YOUR VOTE ON ANY OTHER PARTY!

In my opinion though the UNCA does not come across as appealing in this election they will hold their own. COP have claimed the have captured about 80% of the UNC's base (the most bullocks/BS I've heard for the week).

[peanut]

I don't know about capturing 80% of the UNC support, but they have made enough inroads to cause the UNC to lose some seats. Voters ranging in ages 18-45, the crossovers and the fence sitters are the ones who will make the difference in this election, and that is where the strength of the COP is.

[JediKnight]

I can probabbly go along with an "accomodation" where COP agrees to not put up a candidate for some seasts and the UNCA likewise, but what happenes after let's say if they win a combination of 22 seats ?The leadership issue will still be there, the egos will still exist, the people who feel they have a right to lead will still be in there, the people who like to mash things up if they don't get their way will be in the mix.

How will it it work ?

Please answer me, somebody....anybody...

It cannot work. As long as Panday is in the equation, the population has not forgotten 1986, 2000 and 2001. If there should be an alliance/ accomodation with the UNC in its current state, the COP would lose the majority of its support and Dookeran will simply come across as belonging in the Leadership Council to be lead like the others. Further, in that scenario, a united opposition will remain in opposition. The only way for unity to succeed is that Panday has to go. It was heartening to hear Dookeran's comment on Friday, so at least the door is not closed. Now only if the UNC can get their act together.

[Acid]

Say the result of the election is:

COP - 5
PNM -20
UNC -16

i.e. PNM and UNC retained what they had in 2002 and COP gets the 5 new constituencies [or something to that effect].

There can be three scenarios:
1. COP+UNC to form the government
2. COP+PNM to form the government
3. PNM leads but the opposition will be in the majority to keep very close tabs on the government. In this scenario the Opposition will have a lot of power against the government and this could be a change to the NEW POLITICS. The government would not be able to be abusive.

[JediKnight]

Say the result of the election is:

COP - 5
PNM -20
UNC -16

i.e. PNM and UNC retained what they had in 2002 and COP gets the 5 new constituencies [or something to that effect].

There can be three scenarios:
1. COP+UNC to form the government
2. COP+PNM to form the government
3. PNM leads but the opposition will be in the majority to keep very close tabs on the government. In this scenario the Opposition will have a lot of power against the government and this could be a change to the NEW POLITICS. The government would not be able to be abusive.

Once Panday is in the equation, even if there is an option 1, it will last for 6 months. :twisted:

[JPersad]

Yes it would be nice to not to see COP and UNC supporters fighting each other .
But there is just one and only one problem with that .
All of COP supporter and a very significant amount of UNC supporters agree that they can win the election , if Basdeo Panday leaves .
But Bas will have none of it .
IF Bas cannot be PM , then he will do anything to ensure that none whom he think he have groomed,become PNM .
If the UNC have and independent executive , then they will get rid of Panday but they do not .
That is the harsh reality .
Therefore at this time , let everyone carry on with their campaigns.
It would be refreshing not to see COP and UNC attacking each other.However I will not hold my breathe .

[Acid]

This weekend all 3 parties on the platform.

PNM always goes out with a full slate so we'll see if both UNC-A and COP putting up 41 each.

[JPersad]

Say the result of the election is:

COP - 5
PNM -20
UNC -16

i.e. PNM and UNC retained what they had in 2002 and COP gets the 5 new constituencies [or something to that effect].

There can be three scenarios:
1. COP+UNC to form the government
2. COP+PNM to form the government
3. PNM leads but the opposition will be in the majority to keep very close tabs on the government. In this scenario the Opposition will have a lot of power against the government and this could be a change to the NEW POLITICS. The government would not be able to be abusive.
If it happens (I cannot see the UNC winning rthat much seats )I support scenario # 3 .

[Scorpio]

If COP wins 5 seats in this elections, it will open up a whole new era in TNT politics, ending that dotish talk that "it ent have room for a third party".

[skl]

3. PNM leads but the opposition will be in the majority to keep very close tabs on the government. In this scenario the Opposition will have a lot of power against the government and this could be a change to the NEW POLITICS. The government would not be able to be abusive.

you forget something. back when it was 18-18 the UNC ent get a chance to keep tabs on anyone. Manning prorogue (suspend) Parliament for a year then call elections.

once Manning gets the PMship even if its in a minority govt all he need to do is tell max to prorogue parlaiemnt and thats the end of that.

[TheLight]

Yesming say if the result is 20 UNC-A 20 PNM 1 COP they going back to the polls

People at this point it seems unity is out the question, you have to decide if you are going to split your votes and let pnm win or you going to vote UNC-A and hope that they win… the future is in your hands, the result of the election is your decision

[Scorpio]

^^^ I agree with Yetming !!

COP need to be an independant third force in TNT politics, upsetting the status quo - as long as Manning & Panday continue to be the alternatives.

[skl]

People at this point it seems unity is out the question, you have to decide if you are going to split your votes and let pnm win or you going to vote UNC-A and hope that they win… the future is in your hands, the result of the election is your decision

alyuh still trying to unite with a corpse ? how a corpse could split votes ?

[JediKnight]

This weekend all 3 parties on the platform.

PNM always goes out with a full slate so we'll see if both UNC-A and COP putting up 41 each.

COP is putting up 41. UNC said they are not fighting Tobago, leaving 39.

[JediKnight]

Yesming say if the result is 20 UNC-A 20 PNM 1 COP they going back to the polls

People at this point it seems unity is out the question, you have to decide if you are going to split your votes and let pnm win or you going to vote UNC-A and hope that they win… the future is in your hands, the result of the election is your decision

So why is supporting COP splitting votes? Why isn't supporting the UNC splitting votes? What has changed in the UNC from 2002 that would give them a better chance at winning this election than in 2002? Fact is they lost the 2002 elections, and with the same Leader, that feat is going to be repeated, even if COP was not around.

[trini101]

'It cannot work. As long as Panday is in the equation, the population has not forgotten 1986, 2000 and 2001. If there should be an alliance/ accomodation with the UNC in its current state, the COP would lose the majority of its support and Dookeran will simply come across as belonging in the Leadership Council to be lead like the others. Further, in that scenario, a united opposition will remain in opposition. The only way for unity to succeed is that Panday has to go. It was heartening to hear Dookeran's comment on Friday, so at least the door is not closed. Now only if the UNC can get their act together'

I have to agree , it cannot work. As long as Panday is in the equation there is no chance for an alliance to survive. Panday is a maximum leader, it is all or nothing. We have all seen on numerous occasions that he has broken his promises.

[BW]

Panday and Jack on de War room tonight. Wintvworld.com (9 to 10pm)