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skl
10-20-2007, 06:40 AM
U.S. Presidential elections are a year away but the first primaries will be held in January 2008. here's a look at the current status of the field

Democrats.

Sen Hillary Clinton-- leads all polls on the Democratic side both national and state. Has raised 91 million Cash on hand for the primaries 32 million dollars. Is expected to to have an easy victory for the Dem nomination.


Sen Barack Obama is in second place everywhere and falling behind . Has raised 80 million dollars However he also has a war chest of 32 million avialable. He needs to go after Clinton hard and soon.

Fmr Sen. John Edwards third place everywhere and also falling behind. Has raised 30 million with 12.4 million avialble. His best state is Iowa where he's redeployed most of his infrasturcture. If he cant get an upset victory there he's out.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson ranks next, he's raised $18.5 million, of which about $6 million is in the bank. Fourth place in the polls he's everyone's favourite choice for VICE-President.

Delaware Sen. Joe Biden and Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd reported raising just $2 million and $1.5 million respectively in the third quarter.


Republicans.

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has raised 47 million of which 11.6 million is avialable for the primaries. Unfortunately he's also spending huge amounts he raised 11 million from July to September but spent 13 million. If he doesnt control spending he could end up liek Mccain. He's also playing a dangerous strategy, abandoning the early primaries in favour of the big states (NY, California,Florida, NJ) which come later. He currently leads nationally among Rs and in the big states but lags in the earlier states like Iowa and NH.


In Second place nationally is fmr Senator (and Law and Order actor) Fred Thompson . A latecomer to the race he's raised 13 million and has 7 million on hand. His problem is that he leads in the South but nowhere else.


Former Gov. Mitt Romney is the most spendthrift of the candidates, raising about $18.4 million, of which $8.5 million came from his personal bank account and spending 21 million in the third quarter alone. Currently has maybe 9 million the bank. His strategy is the opposite of Gulliani's focusing on the early states (Iowa,Nh,Mich) where he is leading and hoping victories there lead to a bandwagon effect later.


Sen John McCain has managed to stablize finances after disatrous overspending in the summer. He reported raising nearly $6 million. But his cash situation remains precarious despite budget cuts. The two-time presidential hopeful had $3.5 million in cash, but only about $2.3 million of that can be used for primary expenses. He's putting all his eggs in NH where's currently third.


Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has been gaining in Iowa because of his populist message (currently second in the polls) but he hasnt been able to convert that into a fundraising boost. He reported raising just $1 million in the quarter and ending it with about $650,000 in the bank.


The surprise on the Republican side is Rep. Ron Paul, whose anti-war stance is prompting spontaneous giving on the Internet and through direct mail.His campaign reported raising $5.3 million in the quarter -- nearly matching McCain -- for a total of $8.2 million thus far this year. He has $5.4 million in the bank, all of which can be used on primary expenses.

skl
10-20-2007, 07:10 AM
On the Democratic side it looks like Clinton will have an easy win. Obama is running as Mr Nice Guy and is having diffculty picking a fight with her. Edwards is far mo0re agressive but cant seem to break out of his corner. Richardson has risen in the polls recently and may overtake Edwards for third place.


On the Republican side, Guillaini leads, but not by much. Thompson has the South locked up but little appeal else where. Romney is spending his money like crazy--to good effect, a sweep of the early states would make him Gulliani's main rival. Mccain is dead man walking . he needs a miracle in NH to remain relevant. Huckabee is a true dark horse, the more people see him the more they like him , but his fundrasing is horrible. Paul is a wild card. he's nowhere in the polls but he good at fundraising.

JPersad
10-20-2007, 09:45 AM
As a registered democrat , I am supporting Joe Biden in the primaries , even though he does not have a chance .
If Mc Cain gets the Republican nomination (which I doubt he will , ) then I would be voting for the Republicans in the General Election .
Anybody else , then I am voting Democrats , which maybe Hillary , Obama or Edwards.

sapodila
10-20-2007, 10:05 AM
See why I am an independant voter ........JP? I like Romney / McCain, Romney / Huckabee, McCain/ Huckabee or Clinton / Biden , Clinton/ Obama or Clinton / Richardson, clinton / Edwards............Edwards heart is in the right place he should drop out of the race an endorse Clinton at this point.

JPersad
10-21-2007, 10:46 PM
See why I am an independant voter ........JP? I like Romney / McCain, Romney / Huckabee, McCain/ Huckabee or Clinton / Biden , Clinton/ Obama or Clinton / Richardson, clinton / Edwards............Edwards heart is in the right place he should drop out of the race an endorse Clinton at this point.
I respect that .
But for me to vote Republican it has to be Mc Cain .Anybody else , I vote democrat by default .

Scorpio
10-21-2007, 11:00 PM
At this point in the 2004 presidential race back in november 2003, Howard Dean thought he had the Democtaic nomination sewn up, only to loose Iowa in January, losing his momentum and never recovering.

Barack Obama is very close to Hilary in the Iowa Polls, so anything can still happen there.

If Clinton does get the Dems nomination, and make it all the way to the white house, it would mean that Bushes and Clintons would occupy the White House for 28 consecutive years.

Frankly, I would have preferred to see an Al Gore presidency, but sadly he decided not to run.

JPersad
10-22-2007, 08:56 AM
Americans are not too keen on a Presidential dynasty .
With very good reasons , but an exception maybe made for Hillary , should she get the nomination .