NACTA Poll

[Dispatcher]

A new opinion poll suggests that if the two opposition parties unite against the governing People's National Movement (PNM) they could defeat the government in the Nov. 5 general election in Trinidad and Tobago.

The poll has been done by NACTA, a New York-based research and polling organization with no affiliation. It has been conducting surveys in Trinidad and Tobago since 1995 and accurately forecast the outcome of elections including the 1995 and 2001 elections.

It shows the PNM and UNC have lost support over the last week while the UNC-A has gained ground.

The findings are based on interviews conducted with 1225 respondents (44% Indians, 41% Africans, and 15% Mixed and others) to represent a demographic composition of the population in Trinidad.

The survey was conducted from September 29 to October 8.

According to the poll,
PNM is at 40 per cent
UNCA is at 30 per cent
COP 16 per cent
Undecided 14 per cent.

That means the combined opposition and undecided vote totals 60 per cent.

[Dispatcher]

NACTA Polls have historically been quite accurate.

There's still time for voters to sway. But the percentage differences are too big for anyone other than PNM to win unless there is some form of accommodation.

With such a rating COP are hardly likely to win any seats. UNC will end up with less seats and PNM with a greater majority.

For those who were waiting for polls, well here they are.

[peanut]

NACTA Polls have historically been quite accurate.

There's still time for voters to sway. But the percentage differences are too big for anyone other than PNM to win unless there is some form of accommodation.

With such a rating COP are hardly likely to win any seats. UNC will end up with less seats and PNM with a greater majority.

For those who were waiting for polls, well here they are.

Imagine with unity dead and the possibility of an accommodation being resisted, I am sorry but I have to believe Panday when he said the COP is PNM "B" Team that was set up to give the PNM a bigger majority in this election.

Jed me eh sorry for saying dis eh ... But Winston et al are showing a classic case of "don't give a damn about Country" and their caring can only come with a string attached "Panday must go"

[Acid]

Of all the parties, regardless if people like it or not, it seems that the UNC-A is the one who is gathering the most momentum right now. Maybe COP started a little to early and might burn out - time will tell.

11 days to go till Oct 22 and then the all out sprint till Nov 5.

[King B]

Buh aye aye!! I thought the COP winning by a landslide? :roll:

It is amazing how the traditionally accurate NACTA poll reduces the ANSA/McAL poll to nothing more than a gimmick for recreational purposes. It is embarassing to watch UWI being used this way.

It's not the country darling, Dookeran does not give a damn about the UNC. Since when does he owe them votes? The UNC has not presented a platform that will attract the majority of the electorate and is now blaming the COP for their inadequacies. If the UNC had cleared out the bad eggs after they lost the last election the COP would not have a chance. Also, it is silly at best to assume that if an accomodation took place that all the COP and UNC voters would vote for the united party. Stop blaming the COP for the UNC's impotence, they have gone above and beyond the call of duty to put themselves in their current situation. Face the facts.

[reno01tt]

we seem to be forming our assumptions on crowd at rallys, for me manefestos are the key to getting the educated,non party till ah dead, votes and these people can have the deciding factor in any election. Lets wait for these instruments to see realistically what is in it for me and then who seems better able to handle our finances.

[Dispatcher]

In St Augustine, NACTA projects as follows:

UNC-A - 41 per cent
PNM - 24 per cent
COP - 22 per cent

[skl]

Link please

[Dispatcher]

we seem to be forming our assumptions on crowd at rallys, for me manefestos are the key to getting the educated,non party till ah dead, votes and these people can have the deciding factor in any election. Lets wait for these instruments to see realistically what is in it for me and then who seems better able to handle our finances.

NACTA polls aren't based on rally crowds. When will you all open your eyes to the reality?

[reno01tt]

we seem to be forming our assumptions on crowd at rallys, for me manefestos are the key to getting the educated,non party till ah dead, votes and these people can have the deciding factor in any election. Lets wait for these instruments to see realistically what is in it for me and then who seems better able to handle our finances.

NACTA polls aren't based on rally crowds. When will you all open your eyes to the reality?

1225 people out of 1.3 million is not reality...

[Dispatcher]

Link please

http://www.hotlikepepperradio.com/cms/m ... toryid=796 (http://www.hotlikepepperradio.com/cms/modules/news/article.php?storyid=796)

[cm103]

Jed me eh sorry for saying dis eh ... But Winston et al are showing a classic case of "don't give a damn about Country" and their caring can only come with a string attached "Panday must go"

Maybe they do have the country at heart. By this I mean that a good portion of the COP has been under Panday and knows his leadership style and methods. Panday's own lawyer decided that he couldn't back him and that is the man with Panday's side of the corruption case. I'm sure they being on the inside they would have seen some stuff that we would not have.

Every coin has two sides and I wonder how Panday as a man who wants the PNM out and thinks that a unified opposition can do this can stand in the way of that happening. The UNC should really choose, either push for a unified opposition without Panday or fight alone with him, its that simple. In one breath you denouncing the COP then trying to unite with them in the next moment?

Panday and Manning represent the old way of doing things. Shouldn't our politics have evolved at this point?

[cm103]

we seem to be forming our assumptions on crowd at rallys, for me manefestos are the key to getting the educated,non party till ah dead, votes and these people can have the deciding factor in any election. Lets wait for these instruments to see realistically what is in it for me and then who seems better able to handle our finances.

NACTA polls aren't based on rally crowds. When will you all open your eyes to the reality?

The NACTA polls are historically correct and I did agree with Dispatcher to take on the results of them when they were launched. That being said, the COP has some work to do at this point.

Dispatcher you remember how many polls NACTA conducts during the election season? I'd be interested in knowing how the results would look after the UNC announces their final set of candidates.

[King B]

Of all the parties, regardless if people like it or not, it seems that the UNC-A is the one who is gathering the most momentum right now. Maybe COP started a little to early and might burn out - time will tell.

11 days to go till Oct 22 and then the all out sprint till Nov 5.

The UNC-A? Are you kidding? The PNM draw 25- 30 thousand people in some of the worst rain and flooding I have ever seen in POS. The San'do rally on Harris Promenade drew 8,000 people in the rain. The same will occur in Arima this evening. They just unfurled a list of young highly educated candidates who are not carrying any political baggage. The PNM is now hitting its stride. The opposition parties are running low on funding because Manning baited them with the possibility of a snap election all year long and forced them to start campaigning long before they really wanted to. Both the COP and UNC had difficulty fielding candidates while the PNM had too many to choose from. The PNM is now hitting its stride. As it gets closer to the election it will become apparent to all that the PNm will dominate at the polls and this will attract even more support. The COP propaganda has actually scared the PNM faithful out of complacency. The PNM is the only organised, coherent, and united party in T&T; their motto might as well be: "Great is the PNM, at least we know what the hell we doing!" :roll:

[cm103]

: "Great is the PNM, at least we know what the hell we doing!" :roll:

I seriously doubt that if for the money we making we cannot seem to improve the standard of living for the common man. Skyscrapers don't show a developed nation, watching TV is not a good birth control plan and smelters are not the answer for when the oil runs out.

King B would you support Manning for Executive President with even more power than what he has now?

[peanut]

They way all yuh talking all yuh really think this election is a popularity contest between the UNC & the COP!

LOOK HERE GOOD FOLKS .. THE BOTTOM LINE IS ... AT THE END OF DAY IS EITHER THEY HAVE AN ACCOMMODATION OR EMPEROR MANNING WILL TAKE THE BREAD THE DEVIL KNEAD AND SHOVE DOWN ALL YUH THROATS!

I want to hear all yuh say then "WE LIKE IT SO"

[JediKnight]

Imagine with unity dead and the possibility of an accommodation being resisted, I am sorry but I have to believe Panday when he said the COP is PNM "B" Team that was set up to give the PNM a bigger majority in this election.

Jed me eh sorry for saying dis eh ... But Winston et al are showing a classic case of "don't give a damn about Country" and their caring can only come with a string attached "Panday must go"

How so? Didn't they tell Winston to go? Why should Winston unite/ accommodate with Panday and Ramesh now? To save the constitutional majority you say? With such an alliance/ accommodation, they are not going to win. They are going to lose the majority of the COP support. Even if they stop the constitutional majority, don't you think Ramesh will deliver that on a platter to Patrick? And althought he was blanked in 2001, with the advent of Executive President on the Horizon, I am sure he would gladly accept Ramesh this time around. While I accept your view, I am not convinced. While an accommodation may prevent a constitutional majority for now, it will not prevent it for ever. Never forget 2001! Ramesh was willing to bring down the government for his own selfish agenda. He has not changed. And why is it Winston does not care. Are you aware that he was practically begged to take up the post of Political Leader of the UNC, but was skeptical for the same reason that has now played out? There can be no accommodation with Panday and now Ramesh, because of one little word... TRUST. I am not about to support an entity that will most likely splinter down the road and give the PNM their constitutional majority in the end. And why is it Winston doesn't give a damn about the Country? After all the abuse he should crawl back to them? After all he is Winston, not Kamla. And the PNM B Team? Did Winston go to Patrick in 2001 and give him the Government? Do not be caught up in yet another UNC gimmick - there must be unity or the PNM will get a constitutional majority. If they are so concerned why is Panday holding on to leadership.... since 2001.... and not allowing Ramesh (in 2001) or Dookeran (in 2006) to lead? This new gimmick is done in order to ensure Bas returns to White Hall. :evil:

[JPersad]

Better lose with Dookeran than win with Panday .
Think about it !

Having said that , COP need to stay on point an take aim at Bas .If it gets personal so be it .N need to focus on Jack or RLM .
Dookeran do not need to talk about he is a man of integrity , let the people decide that .
Keep the message short and simple .
Repeat .

[Dispatcher]

Maybe they do have the country at heart.

COP can't be that naïve to believe that they can wipe out the UNC Alliance, beat the PNM.

They have a problem with Panday and Warner. Panday and Warner have a problem with them. All of them have pride, all of them have big egos. All of them are human. All of them have made mistakes.

But Jack and Bas are ready to move on – for the national good.

It's time for Dookeran to stop the grandstanding, to tell Ganga and Yetming that this nation is more important than their personal problems with Basdeo Panday.

What is more important to fight for? The country or Personalities?

Don't be misled by those who are not willing to swallow their pride and stand up for Trinidad and Tobago.

If they had the country at heart they would not let it slide into a possible dictatorship.

[Dispatcher]

Imagine with unity dead and the possibility of an accommodation being resisted, I am sorry but I have to believe Panday when he said the COP is PNM "B" Team that was set up to give the PNM a bigger majority in this election.

Jed me eh sorry for saying dis eh ... But Winston et al are showing a classic case of "don't give a damn about Country" and their caring can only come with a string attached "Panday must go"

How so? Didn't they tell Winston to go? Why should Winston unite/ accommodate with Panday and Ramesh now? To save the constitutional majority you say? With such an alliance/ accommodation, they are not going to win. They are going to lose the majority of the COP support. Even if they stop the constitutional majority, don't you think Ramesh will deliver that on a platter to Patrick? And althought he was blanked in 2001, with the advent of Executive President on the Horizon, I am sure he would gladly accept Ramesh this time around. While I accept your view, I am not convinced. While an accommodation may prevent a constitutional majority for now, it will not prevent it for ever. Never forget 2001! Ramesh was willing to bring down the government for his own selfish agenda. He has not changed. And why is it Winston does not care. Are you aware that he was practically begged to take up the post of Political Leader of the UNC, but was skeptical for the same reason that has now played out? There can be no accommodation with Panday and now Ramesh, because of one little word... TRUST. I am not about to support an entity that will most likely splinter down the road and give the PNM their constitutional majority in the end. And why is it Winston doesn't give a damn about the Country? After all the abuse he should crawl back to them? After all he is Winston, not Kamla. And the PNM B Team? Did Winston go to Patrick in 2001 and give him the Government? Do not be caught up in yet another UNC gimmick - there must be unity or the PNM will get a constitutional majority. If they are so concerned why is Panday holding on to leadership.... since 2001.... and not allowing Ramesh (in 2001) or Dookeran (in 2006) to lead? This new gimmick is done in order to ensure Bas returns to White Hall. :evil:

Please note I did not say what you quoted me as saying. Could you correct your incorrect qoutations.

[JPersad]

Maybe they do have the country at heart.

COP can't be that naïve to believe that they can wipe out the UNC Alliance, beat the PNM.

They have a problem with Panday and Warner. Panday and Warner have a problem with them. All of them have pride, all of them have big egos. All of them are human. All of them have made mistakes.

But Jack and Bas are ready to move on – for the national good.

It's time for Dookeran to stop the grandstanding, to tell Ganga and Yetming that this nation is more important than their personal problems with Basdeo Panday.

What is more important to fight for? The country or Personalities?

Don't be misled by those who are not willing to swallow their pride and stand up for Trinidad and Tobago.

If they had the country at heart they would not let it slide into a possible dictatorship.
If you and all UNC supporters believe that , then I have 1000 pregnant bulls for sale .Cheap .Just $5000 each .Ho much yuh want ?

[Dispatcher]

If you and all UNC supporters believe that , then I have 1000 pregnant bulls for sale .Cheap .Just $5000 each .Ho much yuh want ?

What Canadian dollars up where you don't have to worry about Trnindad after the elections. And doh come with some lame story about you having family here.

COP supporters can only distort the facts and claim Dookeran get kicked out. He made his own bed after being handed the leadership.

Get to know the truth behind the media coverage before you go down a slippery slope.

[skl]

but dispatcher you ent quote the full article


According to NACTA, "In a three way contest, the PNM is projected to win 24 to 25 seats, UNCA 15 to 16 seats, and COP one to two seats. But in an electoral accommodation involving UNCA and COP in a one to one contest against the PNM, the PNM trails the opposition by six to nine seats. In an electoral accommodation, the opposition will win between 22 to 25 seats with a chance in two others."


In St Augustine, where COP leader Winston Dookeran is defending his seat against the UNC-A's Vasant Bharath, Bharath is in the lead with 41 per cent to Dookeran's 22. The PNM is at 24 per cent.But two star COP candidates are looking good in their respective constituencies – Prakash Ramadhar and Anand Ramlogan.


All the COP needs is to win a couple of seats to prove that it is possible to win without Panday. once they accomplish that the real battle will be in 2012.

[cm103]

But Jack and Bas are ready to move on – for the national good.



I really cannot believe that they are in this for the good of the country but rather than personal gain disguised as the other.

[Acid]

And the truth is, that at most they might only be able to win a couple of seats

[Dispatcher]

All the COP needs is to win a couple of seats to prove that it is possible to win without Panday. once they accomplish that the real battle will be in 2012.

What will 1 or 2 candidates in parliament be able to achieve come 2012? Those seats over time will just revert back to their traditional base which would be UNC.

[JPersad]

but dispatcher you ent quote the full article

[quote]According to NACTA, "In a three way contest, the PNM is projected to win 24 to 25 seats, UNCA 15 to 16 seats, and COP one to two seats. But in an electoral accommodation involving UNCA and COP in a one to one contest against the PNM, the PNM trails the opposition by six to nine seats. In an electoral accommodation, the opposition will win between 22 to 25 seats with a chance in two others."


In St Augustine, where COP leader Winston Dookeran is defending his seat against the UNC-A's Vasant Bharath, Bharath is in the lead with 41 per cent to Dookeran's 22. The PNM is at 24 per cent.But two star COP candidates are looking good in their respective constituencies – Prakash Ramadhar and Anand Ramlogan.

Nobody voted yet .
This election is still up for grabs.Do not believe every published poll .Nacta is pro RLM , then pro UNC .
COP still have time to appeal to the undecided voters .
COP need to target Panday for what he really is .
A power hungry individual who will stab friends and associates in their backs , so he can achieve power
COP need to target Manning for his plans for an Executive President .
COP need to keep the message short and simple .Then repeat .


All the COP needs is to win a couple of seats to prove that it is possible to win without Panday. once they accomplish that the real battle will be in 2012.[/quote:3eea7]

[JPersad]

All the COP needs is to win a couple of seats to prove that it is possible to win without Panday. once they accomplish that the real battle will be in 2012.

What will 1 or 2 candidates in parliament be able to achieve come 2012? Those seats over time will just revert back to their traditional base which would be UNC.
And play straight into Panday's hand ?
How much pregnant bulls yuh want ?
Still cheap ..$65000 for one !

[Dispatcher]

But Jack and Bas are ready to move on – for the national good.



I really cannot believe that they are in this for the good of the country but rather than personal gain disguised as the other.

So maybe you might be correct. But at least its worth an attempt. A few COP MPs will get into Parliament. Without the alliance they may not get any. With the alliance they will at least have a say in government.

If after all that Panday wants to loose government and mash it up as you claim then he will throw away the power you all claim he is so hungry for. Why would he want to throw that away?

[JPersad]

But Jack and Bas are ready to move on – for the national good.



I really cannot believe that they are in this for the good of the country but rather than personal gain disguised as the other.

So maybe you might be correct. But at least its worth an attempt. A few COP MPs will get into Parliament. Without the alliance they may not get any. With the alliance they will at least have a say in government.

If after all that Panday wants to loose government and mash it up as you claim then he will throw away the power you all claim he is so hungry for. Why would he want to throw that away?
Ok.
If Panday cannot have power or control power , he will mash up any alliance .
Bas mash up the NAR , and though Robbie was equally to blame .
Bas cause the collapse of the UNC govt,by refusing to respect the UNC internal election , which forced RLM out .(If Bas really had the country at heart , UNC would have been in power .RLM would have been PM and Bas would have been President .)
Bas mash up the ULF as a vibrant option to government .

Like I said before , Bas only wants an alliance with COP beccause that is the only he thinks he stands a chance of becoming PM again .
It will not happen!

[Maccogirl]

All I can say King is correct, the COP was the one from day one that said they have all this support, they have 80% of the UNC members, they have 50,000 members and growing. After Woodford Sq they were the ones that telling people look how we went into PNM home and beat them, we the COP take over Woodrford Sq, UNC dead none of the people in Central wants Panday or Ramesh.

COP going into Whitehall Dookeran get so brave he even put up the PM house for sale before he even move in a chair, all this hype was backed by the Guardian and the Express, Panday power hungry, Manning is the new dictator on the block, UNC mashing up all the bright people in the COP now, PNM mashing up is in fighting for position and on and on it goes. The COP crowds bought into it big time getting cocky and swell headed, they have it in the bag Dookeran is the new Saviour. The COP have crime team, economic team, health team all kind of teams they were so sure this thing swinging their way.

Until PNM rally and the UNCA rally, then we all had to take a step back and look, all who we thought was dead looked very much alive, all who we thought was fighting among themselves it was peace and love, now PNM crowds growing and UNCA crowds going while COP gathering getting smaller and smaller. Now we hearing that crowd don't win votes even though the COP cuss people when they were told that very same thing, we hearing all the pictures are being doctored to show that the crowds are bigger than it was, it was a fete, people get paid to come out and all sorts of nonsense.

But the question is what does it say that in the final stages in the run up to election what is happening to the COP base or lack of it now, why have the crowds started to get smaller, something is happening to the COP and you supporters cannot deny that, people moving either between the UNCA or the PNM but they are now picking a side and the COP losing ground. As Manning said the race was always between two parties what he did not tell the public was which two.

[JPersad]

All I can say King is correct, the COP was the one from day one that said they have all this support, they have 80% of the UNC members, they have 50,000 members and growing. After Woodford Sq they were the ones that telling people look how we went into PNM home and beat them, we the COP take over Woodrford Sq, UNC dead none of the people in Central wants Panday or Ramesh.

COP going into Whitehall Dookeran get so brave he even put up the PM house for sale before he even move in a chair, all this hype was backed by the Guardian and the Express, Panday power hungry, Manning is the new dictator on the block, UNC mashing up all the bright people in the COP now, PNM mashing up is in fighting for position and on and on it goes. The COP crowds bought into it big time getting cocky and swell headed, they have it in the bag Dookeran is the new Saviour. The COP have crime team, economic team, health team all kind of teams they were so sure this thing swinging their way.

Until PNM rally and the UNCA rally, then we all had to take a step back and look, all who we thought was dead looked very much alive, all who we thought was fighting among themselves it was peace and love, now PNM crowds growing and UNCA crowds going while COP gathering getting smaller and smaller. Now we hearing that crowd don't win votes even though the COP cuss people when they were told that very same thing, we hearing all the pictures are being doctored to show that the crowds are bigger than it was, it was a fete, people get paid to come out and all sorts of nonsense.

But the question is what does it say that in the final stages in the run up to election what is happening to the COP base or lack of it now, why have the crowds started to get smaller, something is happening to the COP and you supporters cannot deny that, people moving either between the UNCA or the PNM but they are now picking a side and the COP losing ground. As Manning said the race was always between two parties what he did not tell the public was which two.
Yes Macco , but why you not happy ?
How many seats the Panday winning now ?

[skl]

What will 1 or 2 candidates in parliament be able to achieve come 2012? Those seats over time will just revert back to their traditional base which would be UNC.


that's what you feel. Once Poepple realize Panday not invincible, that you can win seats without him, its a whole different field.

[Maccogirl]

JP unlike you to be honest I don't have sleepless nights if Patrick or Bas is PM of this country again, we all have to live in T&T together after election unlike you this is my home ah not leaving, to me its kind of sad what is happening to the COP because so many people came on here and warned them, when it was said take care the COP don't win a seat it was cuss, we saying so were either PNM die hards or Panday zombies, you yourself was saying all of us mad, we so stuck on Panday we not seeing the light.

Now what?? even dotish Yetming still going on the TV talking it will have a upset and COP beating PNM all yuh wake up nah :roll:

[Dispatcher]

What will 1 or 2 candidates in parliament be able to achieve come 2012? Those seats over time will just revert back to their traditional base which would be UNC.


that's what you feel. Once Poepple realize Panday not invincible, that you can win seats without him, its a whole different field.

People already Know Panday not invincible. He lose election more times than he win. So people know he can lose seats already.

Serioulsy, COP is no different from NAR in Trinidad. History will just play out again. And COP as can be seen are recycled NAR people with a few new faces thrown in.

[skl]

JP unlike you to be honest I don't have sleepless nights if Patrick or Bas is PM of this country again, we all have to live in T&T together after election unlike you this is my home ah not leaving, to me its kind of sad what is happening to the COP because so many people came on here and warned them, when it was said take care the COP don't win a seat it was cuss, we saying so were either PNM die hards or Panday zombies, you yourself was saying all of us mad, we so stuck on Panday we not seeing the light.

Now what?? even dotish Yetming still going on the TV talking it will have a upset and COP beating PNM all yuh wake up nah :roll:


LOl so why you so concern if COP fooling we self ? that's we problem.

ent you happy if Manning win ? so what's the deal ?

[JPersad]

JP unlike you to be honest I don't have sleepless nights if Patrick or Bas is PM of this country again, we all have to live in T&T together after election unlike you this is my home ah not leaving, to me its kind of sad what is happening to the COP because so many people came on here and warned them, when it was said take care the COP don't win a seat it was cuss, we saying so were either PNM die hards or Panday zombies, you yourself was saying all of us mad, we so stuck on Panday we not seeing the light.

Now what?? even dotish Yetming still going on the TV talking it will have a upset and COP beating PNM all yuh wake up nah :roll:
I repeat ........... slowly...
How..... much ......seats ..... is ...... Panday........ winning ......?

[skl]

People already Know Panday not invincible. He lose election more times than he win. So people know he can lose seats already.

Serioulsy, COP is no different from NAR in Trinidad. History will just play out again. And COP as can be seen are recycled NAR people with a few new faces thrown in.

invincible in CENTRAL.

People have to be aware that another party can win in central without fear of splitting the vote. that they have other choices.

[Maccogirl]

Jp really I have not looked at the seat I will when they present all their candidates so far I would say as I have always said Kamla and Bas winning their own, and I have asked over and over on here and stated that Dookeran is not winning his it will go either to the PNM or the UNCA, but since you have seen all of the COP people tell me which ones you feel the COP winning.

[JPersad]

What will 1 or 2 candidates in parliament be able to achieve come 2012? Those seats over time will just revert back to their traditional base which would be UNC.


that's what you feel. Once Poepple realize Panday not invincible, that you can win seats without him, its a whole different field.

People already Know Panday not invincible. He lose election more times than he win. So people know he can lose seats already.

Serioulsy, COP is no different from NAR in Trinidad. History will just play out again. And COP as can be seen are recycled NAR people with a few new faces thrown in.
I disagree.
When NAR broke up , my family supported BAS all the way .
This support continued until recently .When RLM left the UNC , I had enough of Panday and his antics and I was the first to break ranks .
A month ago my father was supporting Panday (which he have been doing since 1975).But he got fed up with Panday .On election day he is voting COP .
The last in my family to support UNC , changed his mind to COP ,when he saw Anand on a COP ticket.
My neighbours who up to the last time we met , were die hard Panday supporters .But no more .
I have 1 aunt and 2 cousin who remains UNC .I still love and respect them .

[Maccogirl]

JP ah waiting how many seats the COP winning talk nah

[JPersad]

Jp really I have not looked at the seat I will when they present all their candidates so far I would say as I have always said Kamla and Bas winning their own, and I have asked over and over on here and stated that Dookeran is not winning his it will go either to the PNM or the UNCA, but since you have seen all of the COP people tell me which ones you feel the COP winning.
MG ,

Like I said before this election seems too close to call .
There are too many new dynamics involved and the situation still remains fluid .
However I will venture to say that when it is all over , the UNC is going to have less seats than they presently do .
If that happens , please convey to Mr Basdeo Panday "THANK YOU !AGAIN YOU HAVE RETURNED THE PNM TO POWER "

[Maccogirl]

I told you already I don't care if Manning is the PM again like you don't understand what I am saying, yes UNC may end up with less seats but the fact of the matter is that the COP getting ZERO!!!! and that is my point people were right all along.

[JPersad]

I told you already I don't care if Manning is the PM again like you don't understand what I am saying, yes UNC may end up with less seats but the fact of the matter is that the COP getting ZERO!!!! and that is my point people were right all along.
Thank you .
I respect that .
However we will see sometime on the night of November 5th 2007 .

[cm103]

I told you already I don't care if Manning is the PM again like you don't understand what I am saying, yes UNC may end up with less seats but the fact of the matter is that the COP getting ZERO!!!! and that is my point people were right all along.


So as long as he COP get no seats you doh mind Manning back in power. To be more specific, Manning back in power with more seats?

Lets do some maths here:

PNM + more seats = constitutional majority
Constitutional majority = Manning for Executive President
Executive President Manning = we all lose

So if that is the case:

PNM + more seats = we all lose

What is your real aim here? Back anyone against the COP? or back the UNC to remove the PNM?

[halo]

Looks like the COP is fighting for opposition and not government.

[vaio]

if the pnm gets a constitutional majority... then may lord help us all..

UNC n their support not concerned with dat at all jus as long as Dooks and his party don't get ah seat right!!??

[JPersad]

Looks like the COP is fighting for opposition and not government.
The electorate will decide that .

[Maccogirl]

Never one day did I ever come on here and say PNM not winning this election and I still hold to that, if UNCA /COP came together they would of had a chance or even a chance of having a strong opposition I have always said that. I support the UNCA but I am also realistic PNM as I have said are masters at elections they are hard to beat. UNCA will hold their base PNM will hold theirs.

It was the COP and the COP supporters that were saying they making inroads and winning the entire thing, the advice to them was join together that is the only way they refused now the COP supporters trying to shift the blame to others if the results do not come out in their favor, nope the COP wants to prove a point what I don't know if they don't win a seat what they trying to move they could run in an election any jackarse can do that.

As it stands there is nothing else to say PNM will be the next government and UNCA will be the opposition it just now down to how large the opposition will be.

[King B]

I told you already I don't care if Manning is the PM again like you don't understand what I am saying, yes UNC may end up with less seats but the fact of the matter is that the COP getting ZERO!!!! and that is my point people were right all along.


So as long as he COP get no seats you doh mind Manning back in power. To be more specific, Manning back in power with more seats?

Lets do some maths here:

PNM + more seats = constitutional majority
Constitutional majority = Manning for Executive President
Executive President Manning = we all lose

So if that is the case:

PNM + more seats = we all lose

What is your real aim here? Back anyone against the COP? or back the UNC to remove the PNM?

CM allyuh so ridiculous yes. The USA has an executive President. Does that make Bush or any other US President a dictator? The thinking is so myopic that it is almost painful. An executive President is the next step in our evolution as a democracy. What I hope to see next is a separation of the Executive and the house of representatives. Step by step we are strengthening our institutions and all people like you, who have no clue what they are talking about, is more power for Manning. Think a little bigger.

[Dispatcher]

People already Know Panday not invincible. He lose election more times than he win. So people know he can lose seats already.

Serioulsy, COP is no different from NAR in Trinidad. History will just play out again. And COP as can be seen are recycled NAR people with a few new faces thrown in.

invincible in CENTRAL.

People have to be aware that another party can win in central without fear of splitting the vote. that they have other choices.

PNM win in central in 1971, 1976 and 1981. So the UNC heartland is not invincible. It has happened before. And they get back the seats. So if and thats a big if COP should win a seat it wouldn't have any impact on 2012.

[Maccogirl]

So because UNC supporters staying with their party they not concerned with if PNM wins the election they only will be concerned of that if they abandon their party and give Dooks they vote, what total rubbish. Dooks is a big man he jumped into the thing when he made that decision am sure he knew it could go either way he was looking to gain the UNC base unfortunately it does not look like the COP has accomplished that, their plan seems to be failing that is the nature of politics.

How many elections Panday fought before he became PM so because you form a party all who don't follow you stupid and want PNM to win again, PNM did not roll over and die when Panday and others won Manning was in the opposition with 3 seats, he took his licks and sucked it up, if COP don't accomplish that now well all they have to do is suck it up and try again its as simple as that.

[Dispatcher]

Like I said before this election seems too close to call .

When you will wake up and smell the coffee?

PNM 40% and COP 16% a differnce percentage points of 24 and you calling that TOO CLOSE TO CALL?

[King B]

COP supporters delusional yes. :roll:

[lak]

Like I said before this election seems too close to call .

When you will wake up and smell the coffee?

PNM 40% and COP 16% a differnce percentage points of 24 and you calling that TOO CLOSE TO CALL?

Looking at the above figures rationally the PNM 40% will fluctuate by maybe +/-4%. What is the combined opposition waiting for? Put all ego's aside and get down to work people and get the job done or you will never get the chance to fight another election again.

[halo]

Looks like the COP is fighting for opposition and not government.
The electorate will decide that .

Can I ask you a question? What is the COP's base? If you can tell me that the COP has a base or has 90% of someone else's base then I can agree with you. You cannot win an election on fence sitters alone.

Right now the feeling on the ground is unity. And people are upset that the COP are closed to it.

[sylvestter]

Right now the feeling on the ground is unity. And people are upset that the COP are closed to it.the feeling on the ground???? and what ground is that????

[vaio]

de ground under d unc :D

[halo]

Right now the feeling on the ground is unity. And people are upset that the COP are closed to it.the feeling on the ground???? and what ground is that????

Not the ground that you walk on..... :D

[serenity]

Halo i agree that u cant win an election with previously undecided votes only but realistically, u can win an election with support of persons disenchanted with the stalwarts of the political scene. And there are MANY ppl who are fed up of the glaring incompetence of the PNM to address the concerns of the ppl and the glaring incompetence of the UNC to get their act together and focus on the ppl instead of their desperate grab for power.
SOME ppl are calling for unity, but thats only the UNC supporters, those that cant look beyond beating the PNM. The ppl who are really concerned about the state of our country and the quality of leadership are voting COP. Bec u cannot say u want to save TnT and then vote UNC, thats contradictory bec the govt wouldnt last a year before falling in shambles again.
So, at this point I dont think anyone can say with certainty what may happen on election day bec the electorate seem to be quite fluid in their consideration of the what's at stake and who can serve them best. Not that I'm disputing the poll eh, ah jus saying that it may change or not closer to the date.

[skl]

invincible in CENTRAL.

People have to be aware that another party can win in central without fear of splitting the vote. that they have other choices.

PNM win in central in 1971, 1976 and 1981. So the UNC heartland is not invincible. It has happened before. And they get back the seats. So if and thats a big if COP should win a seat it wouldn't have any impact on 2012.

I trying to figure out if youre being disingenuous or if you really not getting what I saying.

"People have to be aware that another party can win in central without fear of splitting the vote"

ie they can vote for somebody besides UNC without fear that the PNM will benefit from 'vote splitting' like it did previously.

[skl]

Right now the feeling on the ground is unity. And people are upset that the COP are closed to it.

if the ground feeling for unity then its simply short sighted.

NO UNC-COP govt will last more than a year. we will have a next split ah nex election and PNM will come back.

[Parsifal]

So because UNC supporters staying with their party they not concerned with if PNM wins the election they only will be concerned of that if they abandon their party and give Dooks they vote, what total rubbish. Dooks is a big man he jumped into the thing when he made that decision am sure he knew it could go either way he was looking to gain the UNC base unfortunately it does not look like the COP has accomplished that, their plan seems to be failing that is the nature of politics.

How many elections Panday fought before he became PM so because you form a party all who don't follow you stupid and want PNM to win again, PNM did not roll over and die when Panday and others won Manning was in the opposition with 3 seats, he took his licks and sucked it up, if COP don't accomplish that now well all they have to do is suck it up and try again its as simple as that.

Well said MG....well said.

I had posted some time before that for a 3rd or even a 4th party (Tobago) to become a serious player they have to be able to withstand not being in parliament at all for a 5 year period. Work the ground with public meetings and create a viable, responsible organisation. Now this is easier said than done but this is the only way to do it. Eric Williams left the blue print for others to follow because the PNM was not created by "vaps". It took serious thinking of a level that has not really been seen since.

The "Party of Parties" nonsense that people like Kirk Meighoo and others espouse is the lazy man's approach as it rides the backs of the working class/grassroots/poor people who make up the MAJORITY in this and any other developing country.

I also said that this requires time so you have to be relatively young. That is why I also said that Gillian Lucky presents the only serious/credible person who fits the criteria required.......not Winston Dookeran.

Also you need a sense of political and personal charisma. Once again Winston Dookeran does not meet these criteria.

You also need a vibrant functioning youth and women's arm. I say this because it is the lack of women's participation out of the DLP/ULF/UNC politics that has kept them just below critical mass. You just cannot exclude the majority gender from the decision making processes. Eric Williams, George Chambers and Patrick Manning undertood/understand this whereas Rudranath Capildeo, Badase Sagan Maraj and Basdeo Panday were and still are restricted by religious and societal structures from doing so. I have already posited my views as to why this has happened on another topic.

Now while I say all of this, and JediKnight and I have been debating this for a while, Keith Rowley and Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, are going to most likely be the political leaders of the PNM and the UNC by 2012. So she is going to be up against some real heavyweights. It will be a challenge but all things in life worth having are challenges in their own right.

[halo]

Right now the feeling on the ground is unity. And people are upset that the COP are closed to it.

if the ground feeling for unity then its simply short sighted.

NO UNC-COP govt will last more than a year. we will have a next split ah nex election and PNM will come back.

And you know that for sure? Ok lets give manning his special majority and there will be no more free and fair elections in Trinidad and Tobago.

[skl]

Right now the feeling on the ground is unity. And people are upset that the COP are closed to it.
if the ground feeling for unity then its simply short sighted.
NO UNC-COP govt will last more than a year. we will have a next split ah nex election and PNM will come back.
And you know that for sure? Ok lets give manning his special majority and there will be no more free and fair elections in Trinidad and Tobago.

1. so dont give the man a special majority.

2. COnsidering the track records of Panday, Ramesh, Jack, Kamla and Dookeran, you really think they could keep the peace ?

[halo]

1. so dont give the man a special majority.

2. COnsidering the track records of Panday, Ramesh, Jack, Kamla and Dookeran, you really think they could keep the peace ?

Some Trinis believe they live in a perfect Trinidad. Good luck waiting for the perfect leader.

[skl]

1. so dont give the man a special majority.

2. COnsidering the track records of Panday, Ramesh, Jack, Kamla and Dookeran, you really think they could keep the peace ?

Some Trinis believe they live in a perfect Trinidad. Good luck waiting for the perfect leader.

so does that mean you think they will or wont keep the peace ?

[halo]

1. so dont give the man a special majority.

2. COnsidering the track records of Panday, Ramesh, Jack, Kamla and Dookeran, you really think they could keep the peace ?

Some Trinis believe they live in a perfect Trinidad. Good luck waiting for the perfect leader.

so does that mean you think they will or wont keep the peace ?

I can't say. I can only hope they will.

[skl]

so does that mean you think they will or wont keep the peace ?

I can't say. I can only hope they will.


you hope they will,

i'm convinced they cant. its not in thier (plural) nature.

[halo]

so does that mean you think they will or wont keep the peace ?

I can't say. I can only hope they will.


you hope they will,

i'm convinced they cant. its not in thier (plural) nature.

So what's your solution? Manning?

[skl]

So what's your solution? Manning?

some problems dont have a solution.

either manning wins now or he wins a year from now.

if you think about Manning's reelection has been pre ordained from the moment RLM left in 2001. The opposition is still playing with the same team that lost 2001/02.

[peanut]

Halo i agree that u cant win an election with previously undecided votes only but realistically, u can win an election with support of persons disenchanted with the stalwarts of the political scene. And there are MANY ppl who are fed up of the glaring incompetence of the PNM to address the concerns of the ppl and the glaring incompetence of the UNC to get their act together and focus on the ppl instead of their desperate grab for power.
SOME ppl are calling for unity, but thats only the UNC supporters, WRONG! every poll has shown that the majority of the people want unity between the UNC/COPthose that cant look beyond beating the PNM. The ppl who are really concerned about the state of our country and the quality of leadership are voting COPWRONG AGAIN they are the ones who couldn't force Panday out of the UNC. Don't believe me; why are they saying we will untie if Pandy is gone?. Bec u cannot say u want to save TnT and then vote UNC, thats contradictory bec the govt wouldnt last a year before falling in shambles again.It look like not Dooks either don't know what an accommodation is or he is trying to suppress it so his supporters won't consider it
So, at this point I dont think anyone can say with certainty what may happen on election day bec the electorate seem to be quite fluid in their consideration of the what's at stake and who can serve them best. Not that I'm disputing the poll eh, ah jus saying that it may change or not closer to the date.

BTW, the same people who say they are fed up with the UNC and PNM are returning to the UNC and PNM, and after the election when Executive President Patrick Manning, his hand selected Vice-President Hazel Manning, His selected Chief Justice, DPP, AG and Members of Judiciary are all installed, and there is no more elections in T&T .... BLAME THE COP for that is the only change T&T will get because of their pig headedness!

where are you really,

[peanut]

I can't say. I can only hope they will.


you hope they will,

i'm convinced they cant. its not in thier (plural) nature.[/quote]

So what's your solution? Manning?[/quote]

A BIGGER OPPOSITION so there can be checks and balances in our Parliamentary System.

[King B]

Halo, that dotish scare tactic not working sweet heart. The PNm once controlled all 36 seats in the house and to my knowledge we still have free and fair electins and are not a dictatorship. Allyuh could really spin top in mud with these ridiculous scare tactics yes and then wonder why you losing election, after, election, after election...

[vaio]

Halo, that dotish scare tactic not working sweet heart. The PNm once controlled all 36 seats in the house and to my knowledge we still have free and fair electins and are not a dictatorship. Allyuh could really spin top in mud with these ridiculous scare tactics yes and then wonder why you losing election, after, election, after election...


But that was a different time with a different leader... it just does not compare... apples and oranges..

[halo]

Halo, that dotish scare tactic not working sweet heart. The PNm once controlled all 36 seats in the house and to my knowledge we still have free and fair electins and are not a dictatorship. Allyuh could really spin top in mud with these ridiculous scare tactics yes and then wonder why you losing election, after, election, after election...

Manning wasn't leader then.. :roll: Even sour grapes Valley said this in his so called "closure"

[JediKnight]

BTW, the same people who say they are fed up with the UNC and PNM are returning to the UNC and PNM, and after the election when Executive President Patrick Manning, his hand selected Vice-President Hazel Manning, His selected Chief Justice, DPP, AG and Members of Judiciary are all installed, and there is no more elections in T&T .... BLAME THE COP for that is the only change T&T will get because of their pig headedness!

where are you really,

Why is everyone ready to blame the COP? Wasn't Dookeran an outcast? He was told to leave and Panday thought that he would just fade into the sunset. Whether that is so is yet to be determined, but for now, he has certainly hit a nerve in the UNC. Panday didn't want the man. Insulted him in the worse of ways, and all yuh really expect the man to say let by-gones be by-gones? If he goes back to the UNC, he will lose his support, he will betray all those that supported him and he will commit political suicide, because when Panday eventually kicks him out again, he would be on his own. Stop blaming the COP for everything wrong in the country. Just because Dookeran did not fall by the way side as Panday assumed, the COP cannot be blamed if the PNM gets a constitutional majority. Imagine, after 40 years in politics you are claiming that a corpse can help the PNM get a constitutional majority? How pathetic can you get? Do you mean to say the power houses of Panday, Warner, Maharaj, Bissessar, Bharath, Gopeesingh, Mark, ALvarez, Charles, Smith, Simms and Mayhoo cannot stop the PNM by themsleves? That is the combined support of 5 parties. They are all forgetting how much support the NAR had in 1986. They are underestimating their chances man. And I don't understand someting. The COP is being accused of resurrecting the NAR, yet the NAR is part of the UNC-A? How can this be? Carson Charles has the many supporters of the NAR behind him! As I have said before, even in there is an accommodation, the PNM will only have to wait a year for the constitutional majority, which will be delivered to them by..... THE GREAT BETRAYER, RAMESH LAWRENECE MAHARAJ!!!!!

[vaio]

i don't think that the unc supporters willing to look past what will happen if there is an alliance/accommodation...pls ppl open your eyes and look at ALL the alliances that Bas has been, HE MASH THEM UP!! what do you thin will happen this time around... they will live happily ever after.. :?

[JPersad]

Peanut ,
No body is going to be mad at you if you vote for the UNC .That is your choice .That is what democracy is about .
But please do not expect the COP to join a Panay led UNC .
Not happening , unless Panday leave .
Victory for the sake of victory alone is not victory !

[peanut]

As I have said before, even in there is an accommodation, the PNM will only have to wait a year for the constitutional majority.

Jed, the thing is an accommodation will deny the PNM a special majority and it will also mean the Opposition will have more members than the Gov't. The objective should be either removing the PNM and Emperor Manning or having a bigger Opposition that will give us greater checks and balances.

Let us face reality here, neither UNC nor COP will win enough seats going it alone and they will get even less if the votes are split. Dookeran cannot be that niave not to know that. It is for that and only that reason I say blame the COP!

[JediKnight]

As I have said before, even in there is an accommodation, the PNM will only have to wait a year for the constitutional majority.

Jed, the thing is an accommodation will deny the PNM a special majority and it will also mean the Opposition will have more members than the Gov't. The objective should be either removing the PNM and Emperor Manning or having a bigger Opposition that will give us greater checks and balances.

Let us face reality here, neither UNC nor COP will win enough seats going it alone and they will get even less if the votes are split. Dookeran cannot be that niave not to know that. It is for that and only that reason I say blame the COP!

Fair enough. I clearly understand that. But why are we only blaming Dookeran. Just because he failed to fizzle out and become a notch on Panday's bedpost for an idle boast that "I have sent another one to the political grave yard"? Why can't we get past that and ask Panday to step down? After 40 years in politics, he has never once won an election convincingly. Why must Dookeran make the sacrifice. And it will be that. Once there is an accommodation, Dookeran is going to lose the majority of his support. What has changed in a year? Couldn't Panday realise that the risk of a splintered oposition a year ago could mean a constitutional majority? Instead he wants to benefit from the support that has comes Dookeran's way. If the COP fails to get a single seat, they will simply have to prepare for 2012. Why hasn't Panday stepped aside after the track record of "winning" opposition the most? Why didn't he accommodate with Robinson in 1991? Why didn't he accommodate with Ramesh in 2001? Why didn't he accommodate with Dookeran in 2006? This guise of accommodation is a purile attempt by Panday to save himself from yet another term as opposition leader. He simply wants to ride the backs of the so-called middle class support of COP,which is not going to allow that, as he has done with his supporters. Therein lies the problem! The COP supporters simply refuse to be ridden by Panday. And Pnut, at the end of the day, we were both PNM supporters. You have moved onto the UNC or at least is attracted by the accommodation talk and I have moved onto the COP? My problem with the PNM is not that Patrick is a dictator, it is the fact that I believe that we have not gotten value for money over the last 6 years and there has been a squandermania. Which party does not favour their supporters. I supported the PNM in the past, not out of love for the PNM, but because I though that they were the lesser of the 2 evils. Had COP not emerged, I would have either remained with them and campaigned, where I still have a lot of friends, or I would have sat this one out, but still voted for them. I have never supported Panday and I am not about to change now. If there is an accommodation now, it would be as though the COP did not emerge and I will be goin back home and casting my X by the Balisier. Just an interesting point to note. Dookeran's brother died last week. The PNM had the common courtesy to extend their condolences. What did Panday do? Take a cheap shot at Dookeran fainting at the funeral. Makes the dictator almost appear human doesn't it? And to the rest of the forumites, don't use the excuse that everyone on the platform does it. There are certain limits to the political picong. At least Patrick did not descend to that level. But I suppose all is fair in love and war. Its just I have placed certain limits on that saying.

[skl]

Just an interesting point to note. Dookeran's brother died last week. The PNM had the common courtesy to extend their condolences. What did Panday do? Take a cheap shot at Dookeran fainting at the funeral. Makes the dictator almost appear human doesn't it? And to the rest of the forumites, don't use the excuse that everyone on the platform does it. There are certain limits to the political picong. At least Patrick did not descend to that level. But I suppose all is fair in love and war. Its just I have placed certain limits on that saying.

yes I noted that as well. The PNM extended condolences, the UNC took cheap shots. The PNM showed class. and Manning has shown class even in dealing with his detractors. On the platform he saying Achong is still my friend, I have no ill will towards Valley, Hart served his seat well. On the other side what we have ? "We demand unity !!! the corpse dead but westill want unity !"

Panday said this morning that politics is war, and your aim is to destroy your opponent by any means........true but you dont need to be a beast about it. just look at Manning. He consolidating his position with a smile.

[Sirius]

Just an interesting point to note. Dookeran's brother died last week. The PNM had the common courtesy to extend their condolences. What did Panday do? Take a cheap shot at Dookeran fainting at the funeral. Makes the dictator almost appear human doesn't it? And to the rest of the forumites, don't use the excuse that everyone on the platform does it. There are certain limits to the political picong. At least Patrick did not descend to that level. But I suppose all is fair in love and war. Its just I have placed certain limits on that saying.

Excellent point there JediKnight. One can often tell the quality of a man by how he handles his opponent when said opponent is down. On the platform and in politics, they are adversaries. But after that, they are still fellow human beings. I think it tells a lot about Panday and what we can expect from him as PM if he can use Dookeran's time of grief to take a cheap potshot. Manning, in spite of all the ill people can label on him had enough class to extend condolences and not haul political differences into the arena.

...and then Panday wants unity. :shock:

[aka_lol]

Read all about opinion polls and the bandwagon effect.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_poll

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandwagon_effect

[fluxxx]

NACTA...RLM was announced as the candidate for Tabaquite on THURSDAY NIGHT...and NACTA had enough time to make all their calls AND compile results AND form conclusions in time for the Guardian Editor by FRIDAY MORNING....Is it just me or does something smell fishy in Mr. Bisrams backpocket???

[Parsifal]

NACTA...RLM was announced as the candidate for Tabaquite on THURSDAY NIGHT...and NACTA had enough time to make all their calls AND compile results AND form conclusions in time for the Guardian Editor by FRIDAY MORNING....Is it just me or does something smell fishy in Mr. Bisrams backpocket???

I heard Anil Roberts on 106.1 fm this morning discussing the same issue. It sounds a bit fishy to me as well.

This was one of the few pollsters that I thought you could count on that did not have an agenda.

[Dispatcher]

Latest NACTA poll - 19/10/2007

This poll looks at 5 marginal seats:

Tunapuna: ..............PNM - 43%, UNC Alliance - 31%, COP - 13%
St Joseph: ..............PNM - 40%, UNC Alliance - 27%, COP - 18%
Barataria/San Juan: ...PNM - 41%, UNC Alliance - 33%, COP - 13%
Pointe-a-Pierre: ........PNM - 41%, UNC Alliance - 38%, COP - 14%
Chaguanas East: ........PNM - 40%, UNC Alliance - 37%, COP - 13%

PNM is ahead in all 5 constituents. Very close in Chaguanas East and Pointe-a-Pierre. PNM seems to have the 3 East West corridor seats in the bag.

Undecided - approx 14% voters in the three corridor marginals and aprox 9% in the Central marginals.

[JPersad]

YUh still believing them polls ?

[King B]

Come on Gillian, get to work! :lol:

[Maccogirl]

I wonder what the COP people will say now about splitting the votes ???

[Parsifal]

Latest NACTA poll - 19/10/2007

This poll looks at 5 marginal seats:

Tunapuna: ..............PNM - 43%, UNC Alliance - 31%, COP - 13%
St Joseph: ..............PNM - 40%, UNC Alliance - 27%, COP - 18%
Barataria/San Juan: ...PNM - 41%, UNC Alliance - 33%, COP - 13%
Pointe-a-Pierre: ........PNM - 41%, UNC Alliance - 38%, COP - 14%
Chaguanas East: ........PNM - 40%, UNC Alliance - 37%, COP - 13%

PNM is ahead in all 5 constituents. Very close in Chaguanas East and Pointe-a-Pierre. PNM seems to have the 3 East West corridor seats in the bag.

Undecided - approx 14% voters in the three corridor marginals and aprox 9% in the Central marginals.

Does this not prove what I have been saying for months now? The COP is stripping away 20%-25% of th UNC base and attracting a small amount of previously unaffiliated support.

Notice that for the most part the COP candidates are at 13%-14% but if they put a very good candidate such as Gillian Lucky they go up to 18%. The extra 5% is all due to her personally I think. This woman has a place in our national life and I sincerely hope that she does not disappear from the scene after the elections.

The COP hurts the UNC badly.

Paradoxically it is going to get worse for the UNC over the next two weeks as they continue the attacks on the COP. The attacks on the COP only serve to reinforce the notion that Panday will destroy that which he cannot control. The UNC campaign seems to have faltered somewhat and their "momentum" has clearly slowed after really poor showings outside of their base areas. Remember what I wrote about the Emerald Plaza meeting that the crowd was 99% East Indian in composition with some bused in LFL supporters who did not participate in the proceedings? Well those who did not want to take heed then certainly have to now.

The PNM is very much on message in their campaign and have not suffered any serious missteps.

Ken Valley has been almost forgotten along with Stephen Cadiz.

Compare this to the COP have to continue to muzzle the likes of Devant, Anil, Hulsie and Inshan. Also the Marlene Coudray snub of Junia Regrello and her campaign's run ins with supporters from the PNM and the UNC only continues to define her and her candidacy as a divisive one. She has shown once again that some persons may be effective bureaucrats but not politicians.

The UNC have to deal with blow back from the Lennox Smith affair. This story has now received front page coverage for 2 days and has the legs to carry itself on into next week. The public is also getting used to the notion that Panday is going to go back on trial next April. Another negative.

Is it not interesting that both the UNC and the COP have now done a total 180 degree turn with regard to the social support services that the PNM has implemented. It is almost farcical to hear them speak of not only keeping URP and CEPEP but expanding their functions. They are also touting a number of the aspects of the Vision 2020 document!

While all of this is going on a number of people in the traditional DLP/ULF/UNC "safe" seats are asking themselves a very important question...."Is the PNM really the great big "bogeyman", that they have been taught since 1961, to fear?" I have spoken to a number of persons who live in Tabaquite and Couva who have voted against the PNM in every election that they have participated and for the 1st time they are seriously considering voting for the PNM.

I am not certain that the majority who have expressed this opinion to me will actually do this. There is a rule in politics that goes as follows: "Before you switch allegiance and vote for that which you have always been against you first abstain."

It is because of this that I feel the overall voter turnout in the traditional DLP/ULF/UNC areas is going to be down when compared to the 1995, 2000, 2001 and 2002 elections.

Finally. I have been to PNM, UNC and COP events over the last two weeks to gauge the crowd composition and mood.

The COP audiences are resolute in their convictions and are priding themselves that they have not been railroaded into some whorish alliance with the UNCA .

The UNC supporters seem to be just glad that their party has not collapsed as per the predictions of the so called talking class.

The PNM supporters have the look of a people who understand that the next 15 years is going to be shaped by what their party has been articulating as far as how the country is going to be developed. They can speak in terms of positives not negatives. I wrote about this some time ago and it is even more evident now.

Another point to note. The PNM crowds are noticeably younger than any that I recall seeing. Not 16 and 17 year olds, mind you, but people in their mid twenties to mid thirties. People who are in their first marriages, first families, first homes. This is probably the most important non-ethnic demographic to have since this is the foundation of the voting bloc for the next 10-15 years.

[Maccogirl]

The COP can strip all the like the fact of the matter is that they not winning a seat not with 15% or 18% so where are they going other than being the nuisance factor in this election. What good is it to show hey look we take 18% of UNC votes so what, UNCA not in government the PNM is when the COP cant even gather half of PNM votes what is the point of all this to show who what??

[cm103]

The COP can strip all the like the fact of the matter is that they not winning a seat not with 15% or 18% so where are they going other than being the nuisance factor in this election. What good is it to show hey look we take 18% of UNC votes so what, UNCA not in government the PNM is when the COP cant even gather half of PNM votes what is the point of all this to show who what??

What is the point of voting in a corrupt UNC to replace a corrupt PNM? They go thief less?

Why cast a vote for those you deem as immoral and corrupt? That is why the COP has a following. If the COP doesn't win a seat then at least the votes wouldn't have gone towards a party who would misuse them and just show up in 5 years time begging for the vote again for doing nothing.

[Sirius]

One thing I don't care for is that this poll examines the marginals where we already know the PNM will have an easy walk with. I would rather like to see polls from other so-called "safe" constituencies. With the introduction of the COP and the changing of boundary lines I think these will churn out some surprises come November 5th.

[JPersad]

The COP can strip all the like the fact of the matter is that they not winning a seat not with 15% or 18% so where are they going other than being the nuisance factor in this election. What good is it to show hey look we take 18% of UNC votes so what, UNCA not in government the PNM is when the COP cant even gather half of PNM votes what is the point of all this to show who what??
You accept NACTA poll , but reject the Ryan Poll ?
Well I suppose in the final weeks , it will be spin galore !

[Sirius]

I'm not too sure about where the Ryan poll was conducted JP, but I suspect the constituencies it was conducted in and the time it was done at has a lot to do with the disparity. Like I said, it is the old "safe" seats that NACTA seems to be ignoring that may be the surprises in this election. With a third party of the sizable following the COP has, no seat is "safe" anymore. They have all become marginal to one extent or another.

[Dispatcher]

The COP can strip all the like the fact of the matter is that they not winning a seat not with 15% or 18% so where are they going other than being the nuisance factor in this election. What good is it to show hey look we take 18% of UNC votes so what, UNCA not in government the PNM is when the COP cant even gather half of PNM votes what is the point of all this to show who what??
You accept NACTA poll , but reject the Ryan Poll ?
Well I suppose in the final weeks , it will be spin galore !

That's because the NACTA poll has a history of accurately predicting the outcome of the elections.

However the Ryan poll has always proven to be woefully inaccurate. Ryan is just a mouthpiece of the PNM. He is not an independent pollster.

You feel good he put the COP up neck and neck with the PNM? Well that's only to give COP supporters confidence to split the UNC votes even further in the marginals.

[skl]

You feel good he put the COP up neck and neck with the PNM? Well that's only to give COP supporters confidence to split the UNC votes even further in the marginals.

I wasnt aware that the UNC owned people's votes. If someone votes COP then how can a UNC vote be split ?

If someone voted for the UNC once in 2002 does that mean the UNC owns that person's vote forever ?

[JPersad]

The COP can strip all the like the fact of the matter is that they not winning a seat not with 15% or 18% so where are they going other than being the nuisance factor in this election. What good is it to show hey look we take 18% of UNC votes so what, UNCA not in government the PNM is when the COP cant even gather half of PNM votes what is the point of all this to show who what??
You accept NACTA poll , but reject the Ryan Poll ?
Well I suppose in the final weeks , it will be spin galore !

That's because the NACTA poll has a history of accurately predicting the outcome of the elections.

However the Ryan poll has always proven to be woefully inaccurate. Ryan is just a mouthpiece of the PNM. He is not an independent pollster.

You feel good he put the COP up neck and neck with the PNM? Well that's only to give COP supporters confidence to split the UNC votes even further in the marginals.
Breds ,
Polls are a snapshot in time .Nothing more .
My only prediction is that the poll would show the UNC is in decline .If this turns out to be true , it will be because of Basdeo Panday .
However as SKL noted since when does the UNC own electors vote ?

[Dispatcher]

In politics there are terms used, such as voter base. Via trends political analysts desigante certain groupings of people to be likely to support ceratin types of politics or parties. They are known as the party supporters.

If these traditional voters are wooed away for whatever reason then in common political lingo it is reffered to the splitting of that voter base to another grouping.

I'm sure you know all that, and you're just trying to be difficult. I never said UNC owned people's votes. What I implied was that the COP is attrating voters who traditionally voted for UNC. And some people like Ryan who is PNM to the core would want to encourage that because it benefits the PNM. Hence we should be aware of the aims of such a poll.

[JPersad]

In politics there are terms used, such as voter base. Via trends political analysts desigante certain groupings of people to be likely to support ceratin types of politics or parties. They are known as the party supporters.

If these traditional voters are wooed away for whatever reason then in common political lingo it is reffered to the splitting of that voter base to another grouping.

I'm sure you know all that, and you're just trying to be difficult. I never said UNC owned people's votes. What I implied was that the COP is attrating voters who traditionally voted for UNC. And some people like Ryan who is PNM to the core would want to encourage that because it benefits the PNM. Hence we should be aware of the aims of such a poll.
I am very aware of that , which is why I am taking nothing for granted .Same as NACTA is in RLM back pocket .

[skl]

I'm sure you know all that, and you're just trying to be difficult. I never said UNC owned people's votes. What I implied was that the COP is attrating voters who traditionally voted for UNC. And some people like Ryan who is PNM to the core would want to encourage that because it benefits the PNM. Hence we should be aware of the aims of such a poll.

me eh know what this " traditionaly voted UNC" thing is.

the Panday led ULF got 27% in 1976, the Panday led UNC repeated that in 1991 with 29%. Meanwhile the NAR got 24%. In 1995 for the first time ever the ONR/NAR segment decided to vote for the grass roots indian party ie UNC. This decision was influenced by several NArites (Ganga ,Kamla, Assam) being on the UNC ticket and by Dookeran endorsing the UNC. so in 1995 (just 12 years ago) the UNC got 46 %. This stayed together 2000-2002. but now its fairly clear that the knife and fork crew who never were traditional Panday supporters have gotten tired of Panday and have decided to revive the ONR.

there is no splitting the traditional UNC base, its ONR/NARites returning to thier roots

The COP base decends from the (POPPG/LP/ONR/NAR) . this segment of voters has always been distinct from the (PDP/DLP/ULF/UNC) .

and that is something the UNC doesnt seem to understand.

To appeal to that segment requires something besides talk about neemakaram and knife and fork indian, threats for unity and bashing of Anand and Gillian and Prakash and Winston. All the UNC is doing is hardening the stance of the COP base, especially among the young professional class. The UNC runs the risk of alienating some 15-25% of the population for another generation.

[Parsifal]

They have not "run the risk" skl.....it has happened already.

[skl]

contd

additionally I have to say there is an assumption among the UNC that if the COP didnt exist then COP supporters would vote UNC. there is no basis for that asumption most likely COP supporters would not vote and the UNC would still be left in opposition.

[Maccogirl]

So what seat did Dookeran run for under the NAR in 1995???

[skl]

So what seat did Dookeran run for under the NAR in 1995???

:roll:


In 1995 for the first time ever the ONR/NAR segment decided to vote for the grass roots indian party ie UNC. This decision was influenced by several NArites (Ganga ,Kamla, Assam) being on the UNC ticket and by Dookeran endorsing the UNC. so in 1995 (just 12 years ago) the UNC got 46 %

[Maccogirl]

Dookeran endorsed the UNC :D you good yes, so Dookeran's endorsement made them win is that what you are saying?

[Dispatcher]

skl, in the early '90's after the demise of the NAR in Trinidad where did their members go? Well to the UNC. They joined the UNC. It was no accomodation. The UNC gained some of the NAR voter base. So for the last 15 years UNC had an increased base.

It common knowledge that in order to defeat the PNM at elections the oppositions must unite. And that they did under the banner of the UNC. Hence they were able to give the PNM a good run for their money.

My point was that this voter base is now split because of the formation of CoP. That is all I was saying. I never alluded to the fact that UNC owned the voters or that the base that is now split is a base that went back the 1960's.

And as for Dookeran endorsing the UNC, he did not join the UNC until 2002. He did not endorse anything UNC prior to that.

[Dispatcher]

I am very aware of that , which is why I am taking nothing for granted .Same as NACTA is in RLM back pocket .

You have any proof for that? Or is that the usual CoP old talk?

Whereas Ryan openly flaunts his preference for a PNM government.

[scrunter]

If the two parties don't join forces there will be nothing to run for in 2012....Right now COP loooooooosing more and moore of its base because the people are smart enough to know that country comes b4 individual and whether panday and jack are honest or not they are the ones who are calling for unity while dooks talking the talk but not not walking the walk.COP talking about new politics but still their candidates going on the platform and talking gutter politics ...ask anand ...day is why the ramgoat talk surface after he launch de fust attack...he shoulda do like prakash.
In the meantime while alyuh preoccupied with this unca cop ting patrick and he boyz laughing because nobody taking he on so he going about talking his garbage ,rallying his supporters spending we money for his campaign and is on the verge of pulling off the improbable victory because the UNCA and the COP supporters are tooo busy bashing each other.So pretty soon we would have to go back to the mantra long live we king(oh sorry ah mean president).

[skl]

skl, in the early '90's after the demise of the NAR in Trinidad where did their members go? Well to the UNC. They joined the UNC. It was no accomodation. The UNC gained some of the NAR voter base. So for the last 15 years UNC had an increased base.

the UNC has had an increased base for the last 12 years. what's traditional (your word) about that ? Now the NARites are going to their traditional stance of supporting a third party.

It common knowledge that in order to defeat the PNM at elections the oppositions must unite. And that they did under the banner of the UNC. Hence they were able to give the PNM a good run for their money. Correct but such unity is the exception not the norm in TT politics.
My point was that this voter base is now split because of the formation of CoP. That is all I was saying. I never alluded to the fact that UNC owned the voters or that the base that is now split is a base that went back the 1960's. My point is that the UNC cannot simply assume that people who previously voted ONR/NAR and then gave the UNC a try 1995-2002 will continue to be UNC. regardlesss of the existence of the COP. You say "this voter base" but it is not a single base but rather two distinct 'bases' that temporarily votedfor a single party.

And as for Dookeran endorsing the UNC, he did not join the UNC until 2002. He did not endorse anything UNC prior to that. Endorse does not mean join. Dookeran endorsed the UNC during the 1995 campaign. Look it up.


YeS the UNC got a certian percentage 1995-2002 but that is a hardly the "traditional UNC" vote. You make a point that there was no formal accomodation. So what ? the entire UNC campaign of 1995 was full of slogans like "Unity on a UNC bed" and "unity from below". You remember the Committe for National Unification with Humphrey and Pantin?

The UNC made an active attempt to court Narite votes and were successful.

The assumption you are making is such union is permanant. That when a Narite votes for the UNC that transforms him into a UNcite. No such thing. The NArites still remains a knife and fork indian to use Panday's words. and as such remains with a different political view than the traditional UNC grassroots who have been voting for Panday since 1976.

To assume that they would continue to vote UNC not matter what, is a misjudgment.

[skl]

Dookeran endorsed the UNC :D you good yes, so Dookeran's endorsement made them win is that what you are saying?


well yes, some people cant read. :roll:

I said the UNC won in 1995 by actively courting ONR/NAR voters, now they actively attacking them, we go see if thats a winning strategy.

[Dispatcher]

skl, its the CoP who was going around claiming that they have 80% of the UNC voter base. Not me. I never once heard CoP saying they taking back their NAR k&F voters that went to the UNC after the 1991 election.

The fact is before the formation of CoP the UNC as a party would have had a 43-48 percent of the electorate base. After CoP, that has been reduced.

Simple mathematics. Why you have to extrapolate to UNC don't own voters or they didn't belong to UNC at some point in history. I was just looking at the realities of today.

[skl]

skl, its the CoP who was going around claiming that they have 80% of the UNC voter base. Not me. I never once heard CoP saying they taking back their NAR k&F voters that went to the UNC after the 1991 election.

The fact is before the formation of CoP the UNC as a party would have had a 43-48 percent of the electorate base. After CoP, that has been reduced.

Simple mathematics. Why you have to extrapolate to UNC don't own voters or they didn't belong to UNC at some point in history. I was just looking at the realities of today.

oh come now... you missing the point.

If 16% of the population (accordingto NACTA) is willing to abandon the UNC for the COP, what makes you think they are willing to vote UNC AT ALL?

my point is simply that you seem to think that without the forming of the COP (and "vote splitting"), the UNC would automatically get the same support it got 1995-2002. Not so. Alot of people (fmr NARites) who voted for the UNC then would simply abstain this time.

[Dispatcher]

If you think that all the 16% that CoP has attracted would not have voted even in the absence of CoP, then that is your call.

However being realistic one can assume that a certain portion of that grouping would have stayed with the UNCA had CoP not existed. As we speak we keep hearing of CoP supporters returning to the UNC which kinda invalidates your argument somewhat.

In some of the marginals the percentage difference between winning or losing is 5-8%. The loss of any voters in these key areas is critical to winning or losing the entire election.

As things stand the PNM seems to have all the marginals in the bag. As a result they will take the election easily. CoP with a 16% support stands no chance, nowhere. So lets face it, they are just a nuisance factor in this race.

By all means vote your conscience. But remember what we end up with, even though we didn't support it, is related to how we execised our civic duty.

[JPersad]

If you think that all the 16% that CoP has attracted would not have voted even in the absence of CoP, then that is your call.

However being realistic one can assume that a certain portion of that grouping would have stayed with the UNCA had CoP not existed. As we speak we keep hearing of CoP supporters returning to the UNC which kinda invalidates your argument somewhat.

In some of the marginals the percentage difference between winning or losing is 5-8%. The loss of any voters in these key areas is critical to winning or losing the entire election.

As things stand the PNM seems to have all the marginals in the bag. As a result they will take the election easily. CoP with a 16% support stands no chance, nowhere. So lets face it, they are just a nuisance factor in this race.

By all means vote your conscience.But remember what we end up with, even though we didn't support it, is related to how we execised our civic duty.
Agreed .
A default vote is a reactive .... SHORT TERM
A thought out vote is proactive ..... LONG TERM

[Maccogirl]

Dookeran endorsed the UNC :D you good yes, so Dookeran's endorsement made them win is that what you are saying?


well yes, some people cant read. :roll:

I said the UNC won in 1995 by actively courting ONR/NAR voters, now they actively attacking them, we go see if thats a winning strategy.

Is that what you said really :D ??? Nah man you tried to make a plug for Dookeran in a smart way in saying in 1995 they won because one of the main endorsement of the UNC ticket was Dookeran when he was no where in the picture. That is the main problem with some of you always trying to make this man Dookeran into some great political force.

Stop trying to hoodwink people Dookeran was never a force in any political time he won that seat because it was a UNC seat and not because Dookeran was a great candidate, Humphrey had a good record in that area it was a safe seat and easy win for UNC, as to what Dookeran did as to representing that area is debatable, what he achieved while he was at Central Bank is also debatable, as to him being in Parliament another issue where person can say all he did was occupied a seat.

[skl]

Dookeran endorsed the UNC :D you good yes, so Dookeran's endorsement made them win is that what you are saying?


well yes, some people cant read. :roll:

I said the UNC won in 1995 by actively courting ONR/NAR voters, now they actively attacking them, we go see if thats a winning strategy.

Is that what you said really :D ??? Nah man you tried to make a plug for Dookeran in a smart way in saying in 1995 they won because one of the main endorsement of the UNC ticket was Dookeran when he was no where in the picture.
.

well apparantly you is Manning seer woman :ugeek: . I know what I say but apparantly you know more than me what I mean. :?

In 1995 for the first time ever the ONR/NAR segment decided to vote for the grass roots indian party ie UNC. This decision was influenced by several NArites (Ganga ,Kamla, Assam) being on the UNC ticket and by Dookeran endorsing the UNC. so in 1995 (just 12 years ago) the UNC got 46 %.

how come this wasnt a plug for Kamla or Ganga or Assam ?

[Dispatcher]

Agreed .
A default vote is a reactive .... SHORT TERM
A thought out vote is proactive ..... LONG TERM

No problem with that if it happened to be a realistic goal.

However with a current 16% of the voter base the CoP will fare even worse than that NAR did in 1991. And you know what happened to the NAR after that.

Trinidad's political landscape is not broad enough to support a strong third party. CoP may want to replace the UNC but with no MP's in parliament and no national mouthpiece for issues affecting the people, there's little chance of them threatening the UNC who (at this stage) are likely to have 16-17 seats on the house.

[JPersad]

Voting have not yet started ( I believe Special Ballots will start next week ), and I believe with the exception of PNM voters , the situation remains fluid .
A high voters turnout will benefit the COP (80-85 % or more ).

On a personal note , I would hope that we are all mature enough ,not to become enemies only because of the political parties we support.
On Election Day my family of 7 will go to the polls together .6 will be voting for COP .1 will be voting or the UNC .
Together they will all drive back home and debate the results in the night .
During the heat of the battle I know I have offended many , including Sumana .
To her and the others I apologize .

[Dispatcher]

On Election Day my family of 7 will go to the polls together .6 will be voting for COP .1 will be voting or the UNC .


That may change. As you said the situation is quite fluid!


On a personal note , I would hope that we are all mature enough ,not to become enemies only because of the political parties we support.

I hold no animosity to anyone, no one should, especially in the realms of politics. Where I work I'm sure 90% of my colleagues are PNM. But we all good friends.

I debate with people to put across my pov, try to bring out the truth regarding distortion of events, because I want to see TnT prosper for our children and their children's children. So making enemies is the last thing on my mind.

[JPersad]

I am very aware of that , which is why I am taking nothing for granted .Same as NACTA is in RLM back pocket .

You have any proof for that? Or is that the usual CoP old talk?

Whereas Ryan openly flaunts his preference for a PNM government.
I made that same statement many years ago when RLM was forced out of the UNC and I , JP was probably one of RLM biggest supporters back then and until he went back to Bas .

[JPersad]

On Election Day my family of 7 will go to the polls together .6 will be voting for COP .1 will be voting or the UNC .


That may change. As you said the situation is quite fluid!
Yuh right .It may be 7 for COP :lol:


On a personal note , I would hope that we are all mature enough ,not to become enemies only because of the political parties we support.

I hold no animosity to anyone, no one should, especially in the realms of politics. Where I work I'm sure 90% of my colleagues are PNM. But we all good friends.

I debate with people to put across my pov, try to bring out the truth regarding distortion of events, because I want to see TnT prosper for our children and their children's children. So making enemies is the last thing on my mind. We all need to remind ourselves of this .Thank you .